How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War | Odd Lots

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward. Read more: Israel Is Now Peerless in the Middle East and Markets (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-09/israel-is-peerless-in-the-middle-east-and-markets?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article) Israel Emerges Stronger From Iran War, But Risks Blowback (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-29/israel-emerges-stronger-from-iran-war-but-risks-blowback?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article) Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News (http://bloomberg.com/) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots (https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast) See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information. Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter via https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video

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