Live: Tesla Q2 Earnings Call 2025 (TSLA)
发布时间 2025-07-23 23:17:24 来源
And investor relations. And I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Bob Teneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q2 results were announced in about 3 p.m. Central time in the update deck, the published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and what follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.
投资者关系。今天我和埃隆·马斯克、鲍勃·特内亚以及其他几位高管一起参加此次会议。我们的第二季度业绩已在中部时间下午3点左右的更新文件中公布，并在与本次网络直播相同的链接上发布。在本次电话会议中，我们将讨论我们的业务前景并作出前瞻性声明。 这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和预期。由于许多风险和不确定性，实际事件或结果可能会有重大差异，包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中提到的风险和不确定性。在今天问答环节中，请将提问限制为一个问题及一个后续问题。请使用举手按钮加入问答队列。
Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon. Thanks, Travis. So we've had a very exciting quarter. The we're all too successfully launched robot taxi. So we're waiting up first. Drives with no one in privacy. And both paying customers in Austin. And as some may have known, we've already expanded our service area in Austin. It's a bigger and longer. And it's going to get even bigger and longer. We were expecting to really. It greatly increased the most and so, so area. To well and excessive what competitors doing. And that's hopefully in a week or so, two weeks. Yeah. Couple weeks, couple weeks or so.
在我们开始问答环节之前，Elon 有一些开场白。Elon，请说。谢谢，Travis。这一季度非常令人振奋，我们成功推出了机器人出租车。我们首次实现了无人驾驶，并且在奥斯汀接待付费乘客。正如一些人可能已经知道的那样，我们已经扩大了奥斯汀的服务区域，变得更大更长，而且还会继续扩大。我们预计这一扩展会显著超过竞争对手。目前目标是在一两周内实现，是的，大概一两周内。
And. And there were we're getting the regulatory commission to launch in the next week. We launched in the area. About. Arizona and a number of. And Florida and a number of other places. So as we. Get the approvals and we prove out safety. Then we'll be launching. To autonomous right hailing in. Most of the country. I think we'll probably. Have autonomous right hailing. And. We have. Half the population of the US by the end of the year. We have. We have. We have. We have. We have. We have. We have. That's that's we stuck all. Subtained to regulatory approvals. I. I think. We'll technically be able to. It's assuming we're regulatory approvals.
我们正在推动监管委员会在下周启动。在亚利桑那和佛罗里达以及其他一些地方，我们已经开始了。当我们获得批准并证明安全性后，我们将在大部分地区推出自动驾驶出租服务。我认为到年底，我们可能会在美国一半的地区提供这种服务。这一切都依赖于监管部门的批准。我想，从技术上来讲，只要我们获得了监管批准，我们就能够做到。
It's probably interesting. The population of the US. I did the year. But we. We are very cautious. We don't want to take any. Chances. And so. We're good. We're going to. Yeah. Go go cautiously. But. It's going to be a lot of. And the. We're really. We're. But. But. It's a. But. It's a. The. The. The. So. So. I'm. I'm. I'm. Other. Other. Other. Other. Other. Other. And autonomy is a big factor there. So even with that, even absolute, even with that supervised, even with just supervised self-driving, it's a huge selling point.
这可能很有趣。谈到美国的人口问题。我做了一些研究。但是我们非常谨慎。我们不想冒任何风险。所以我们会采取谨慎的方式。不过，这将会有很多变化。自主性在这个过程中是一个很大的因素。因此，即使在有人监督的情况下，即使只是有监督的自动驾驶技术，它仍然是一个巨大的卖点。
And it's worth noting that we do not actually yet have approval or supervised Aberste in Europe. So ourselves in Europe, we think, will improve significantly once we are able to give customers the same experience that they have in the US. This is, I think, a very important point to convey. We've been working with Bank Country Rape Leader, which is the Netherlands. And I think we're close to getting approval with the Netherlands. Then it's going to go to the EU. It's quite a. You know, Kafka-esque. In fact, Kafka-esque, no idea that's something like the EU could exist.
值得注意的是，我们实际上还没有在欧洲获得对Aberste的批准或监管。因此，我们认为，一旦能够为欧洲的客户提供与美国客户相同的体验，我们在欧洲的业务将会显著改善。我认为这是一个非常重要的观点。我们一直在与与荷兰的Bank Country Rape Leader合作，我认为我们快要获得荷兰的批准了。接下来，这将提交给欧盟。这整个过程有点像卡夫卡小说中的情节。事实上，卡夫卡式的情节居然存在于欧盟中。
I did, beyond Kafka-esque challenges with Europe or sea. But we won't get the approvals. And I think we'll get. Some people in Europe will have experience, some of them have the US in most of Europe. This year, hopefully, at least partially in this quarter. And then we also had from regular cloud, regular cloud challenges in China, which were hopefully unblocked shortly, where we also cannot provide suit by Aberste in China currently. We don't unblock that suit. And that's also. That's another major. It really is the single biggest demand drive.
我经历了一些超越卡夫卡式挑战的事情，包括与欧洲或海洋相关的挑战。不过我们不会获得批准。我认为我们会得到一些批准。欧洲的一些人会有经验，其中一些人还有美国在大部分欧洲地区的经验。希望今年至少在这个季度能部分实现。此外，我们在中国也遇到了常规云计算的挑战，希望这些挑战能很快解决。目前我们无法在中国提供Aberste的产品套件。如果我们不能解决这个问题，这将成为另一个重大的挑战。实际上，这确实是最大的需求驱动因素。
And then within the US, as we are getting confident about safety in different geographic areas, the. we will. We will loosen up on how much somebody has to be laser focused. Have their eyes laser focused on the road. You know, that's been a common complaint. In fact, it does create an odd safety issue where people will sometimes disengage or to buy it. Then do something change the radio or maybe look at the phone, drive with a knee, and then reengage with a file, which obviously is nothing less to say than simply keeping what a file is on.
在美国境内，当我们对不同地区的安全性越来越有信心时，我们会放宽对司机全神贯注于道路的要求。大家都知道，这一直是个普遍的抱怨。事实上，这也确实引发了一个奇怪的安全问题，人们有时会在关闭驾驶系统后做其他事情，比如调节收音机、看手机，甚至用膝盖开车，然后再重新启用系统。这显然不如一直让系统保持开启状态安全。
So anyway, we'll get that to experience. We'll improve in the next several weeks. The. Because of our focus on. Orstone with. Or Darwin's privacy. The production release of autopilot is actually several months behind what people experience on a robotaxle in the lost. So now we have the robotaxle in the lost and lost. We'll be providing. Adding back those elements so that there will be. There's step change, improvements in the. The autopilot experience. What people ask that lost in the lost.
所以呢，我们会获得这种体验，并在接下来的几周内改进。由于我们专注于Orstone和Darwin的隐私保护，自动驾驶的正式发布实际上比人们在Robotaxle上体验的要晚几个月。所以现在我们有了Robotaxle在测试中。我们会逐步添加那些元素，以便在自动驾驶体验上有显著的改善。人们在测试中所要求的内容，将在更新中体现。
This is really. As you can tell, this is very much sort of an autonomy is the story. Like we need the physical product without which you cannot have autonomy, but once you have a physical product, you need the autonomy is what amplifies the value to stratospheric levels. We also want the Tesla Diner, which has been a huge hit. Actually got worldwide attention, which is unusual for a Diner. Data's don't typically get that headline news around Earth. But this is a pretty special Diner. And if you're in the LA area, it's worth visiting. It's sort of a shining beacon of hope. And. But not otherwise, sort of leap of an landscape, frankly. It's a really quite a lovely experience. A great job, I think, as long as he's there. On the full software in front, continue to read about that.
这是一个非常重要的事情。如你所见，这主要是关于自主性的故事。我们需要实体产品，没有它就无法实现自主性，但是一旦有了实体产品，自主性就可以将其价值提升到极高的水平。我们也希望介绍特斯拉餐馆，这已经成为一个巨大的成功，实际上引起了全球的关注，这对于餐馆来说是不常见的。餐馆通常不会成为全球头条新闻，但这是一家特别的餐馆。如果你在洛杉矶地区，这里值得一游，它就像一座希望的灯塔。在一个不算特别耀眼的景观中，这是一次非常美好的体验。我认为做得很好，只要他在，就会继续关注完整的软件开发。
We have. We're continuing to make significant improvements just from the software. So. The. We're expecting to increase the parameter account. Actually, at this point. I think we think we can probably 10X, the one was 10X, the parameter. The arrow fleets. Roughly 10X, the parameter account. So. This is actually a very tricky thing to do. Because as you increase the parameter account, you get a choke onto every bandwidth. But we currently think we can 10X, the parameter account, from what people are currently experiencing. So not just for it, it's actually 10X increases and parameter account. And. Yeah, so. So a lot of improvement on the existing hardware tends to happen.
我们确实在进行中。我们仅通过软件开发就取得了显著的改进。所以，我们预计将增加参数的数量。实际上，在这一点上，我认为我们可能可以将参数数量增加到原来的十倍。箭头系列的参数大约增加到原来的十倍。所以这确实是个很棘手的事情。因为当你增加参数数量时，会影响到每一个带宽。但是我们目前认为我们能把参数数量增加到人们目前体验的十倍。因此，不仅仅是增加，而是真正的参数数量增加到了十倍。而且，嗯，所以很多基于现有硬件的改进正在发生。
Energy is growing really well. Despite headwinds from tariffs and spare supply chain challenges. The very pack is sphane capacity quickly. And I don't have upgrades, the negative pack that will make it even better. And we had record power wall deployments in our GANQQ too. So. I think. Battery batteries are going to just be a massive thing. That the scale of batteries, battery demand is, I think. Not that many people appreciate just how. Gigantic the scale of battery demand is. The way you think about it is that the US sustained power output from the US grid is around one terro-what.
能源行业正在迅速发展。尽管面临关税和供应链问题的阻碍，相关的储能设施正在快速扩充。我还没有进行升级，但即使在困难条件下，这些措施将使发展更进一步。在本季度，我们创下了创纪录的Powerwall部署数量。所以，我认为电池将成为一个非常重要的领域。电池的需求规模非常庞大，可能很多人还没有意识到这一点。比如说，美国电网的持续功率输出大约是一个太瓦。
But average usage is less than half the terro-what. But if you add batteries to the mix, you can run the power plants 24, 7 at full capacity. That's doubling, more than doubling. The energy output per year of the United States is just with batteries. But that's again. Big deal, it's a really big deal. Optimus, so we're revolving up to Optimus design. I'm really getting Optimus to the point where it is a phenomenal design. So, an Optimus version 2 right now, sort of 2 and a half.
平均用电量不到 "terro-what" 的一半。但如果加入电池，你可以让发电厂以满负荷全天候工作。这就是翻倍，甚至超过翻倍。仅靠电池就能使美国每年的能源输出翻倍。这真是一个非常重要的事情，非常重要。关于Optimus，我们正在推向Optimus的设计。我真的要让Optimus达到一个极其出色的设计。目前是Optimus的第2版或者说2.5版。
Optimus 3 is. It is an exquisite design in my opinion. And. will be an incredible. As I've said many times before, it will be the biggest product ever. It's a very hard problem to solve. You have to design every part of it from physics first principles. There's nothing that's off the shelf that actually works. So you're going to design every motor of gearbox, power electronics, control electronics, sensors, the mechanical elements. We also got trained Optimus to. You use its lemon-centered sensors with a neural net.
Optimus 3 是一款非常精美的设计。在我看来，它将会是一个令人难以置信的产品。正如我之前多次提到的，它将会是有史以来最大的产品。这是一个非常棘手的问题。你必须从物理学的基础原理开始设计每一个部件，没有现成的解决方案可以使用。因此，你需要设计每一个马达、齿轮箱、电力电子器件、控制电子设备、传感器和机械部件。我们还对 Optimus 进行了训练，使其能够使用其中央的传感器和神经网络。
But we'll be applying the same techniques that we were applying for a car, which is essentially a four-wheeled robot. And Optimus is a robot with arms and legs. So the same principles that apply to Optimus A.I. Inference are the car applied to Optimus. Because they're both really robots in different forms. And Tesla, it is important to know that Tesla is by far the best in the world and real world A.I. Like a clear proof point, but that would be. If you compare it to Tesla's Waymo, Waymo's got. The car is best doing it with God knows how many sensors.
我们将使用相同的技术来开发一辆车，实际上是一种四轮机器人。而Optimus则是带有手臂和腿的机器人。因此，适用于Optimus人工智能推理的原则，与适用于汽车的原则一致，因为它们实际上只是不同形态的机器人。特斯拉是全球在现实世界人工智能领域最领先的公司之一，这一点非常重要。一个明显的证明可能就是，如果你把它和Waymo相比，Waymo的测试车辆使用了大量传感器。
And yet, isn't Google good at A.I.? Yes, but they're not good at real world A.I. That's part. They have. Tesla is actually much better than Google by far. And any. Much more than anyone at real world A.I. And I think. And by far Tesla has the best Inference efficiency. Like I think a key figure of R.I. What is the intelligence for a gigabyte? People know about parameters. But I think. But I'm talking about parameters and talk about gigabytes.
Google在人工智能方面很厉害吗？是的，但是他们在现实世界的人工智能方面并不擅长。这就是其中的一部分。他们确实在这一领域有所涉足。但是，特斯拉在现实世界的人工智能上实际上比谷歌好得多，远超其他任何公司。而且，我认为特斯拉在推理效率方面也是最出色的。我认为，一个关键的指标是每GB的数据所能表现出的智能。大家熟悉参数这个概念，但我这里指的不仅仅是参数，还有数据量。
Because with the parameters, you can have four but parameters, eight but parameters, sixteen but parameters. But the actual constraints in the hardware are. How many gigabytes of RAM and how many gigabytes per second can you transfer from RAM? Therefore, it's not a parameter constraint. It is a. There's a byte constraint. And Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any A.I. by far. And I have a little insight into this with XAI. XAI is. You know, GROC is the sponsor of the A.I. Overall, but it's a.
因为在参数方面，你可以有四位、八位、十六位的参数选择。但硬件上的实际限制是有多少GB的内存（RAM），以及每秒可以从内存传输多少GB的数据。因此，这不是参数上的限制，而是字节上的限制。而且，特斯拉的人工智能在智能密度方面远远领先于其他公司。我对这方面有一点了解，因为我接触过XAI。GROC是这个人工智能项目的赞助方。
You know, GROC 4 is a giant beast. There's the. The terabyte level. And. So it's. Kind of a. Important to know it tells that Tesla has the best intelligence density. And intelligence density will be a very good deal with the future. It is not. So. With the Optimus 3. Which is really the right design. It doesn't have. At this point, there's no. No significant. Significant flaws with the Optimus 3 design. But we are going to retool a bunch of things. So it's. And it'll probably be. Productives of Optimus 3 into this year. And then scale production next year. And to try to scale Optimus production as fast as it's even like possible to do so. And try to get to the million units a year as quickly as possible. We think we can get them less than five years. It's my sort of. I guess. That's a reasonable aspiration. It's. Your million units a year. Five years. It seems like an adorable target.
你知道的，GROC 4 就像一个庞然大物。它达到了太字节级别。所以，了解特斯拉具备最佳的智能密度是很重要的。智能密度将在未来成为一项非常有价值的优势。Optimus 3 并非如此，它的设计确实非常出色，目前来看没有显著的缺陷。但是我们计划对很多东西进行重新调整。可能在今年年底进入小规模生产，明年扩大生产。我们希望尽可能快地加速 Optimus 的生产，力争尽快达到每年一百万台的产量。我们认为在五年内实现这一目标是可行的，这是我的一个合理期望。每年一百万台，五年之内，这似乎是一个可爱的目标。
It. It. It. It. It. It. It. It. It. It. It. It's a. Lard and A.C. have said we would not achieve. And it's worth noting that the. We have done what we said we're going to do. And we're always on time. But we get it done. And on A.C. have us. us sitting there with egg on their face. So. Great, great progress by the Tesla team. Yeah, I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with big, large economy. And. And human rights, large economy. It will be the most valuable company in the world. There's a lot of execution between here and there. It doesn't just happen. But. We're about it. We. Execute very well. I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company. The most valuable company in the world. I'm obviously extremely optimistic about future of the company.
这是一个表达观点的文本，翻译如下：
他们说我们无法做到，但值得注意的是，我们已经完成了我们承诺的事情，并且总是能按时完成。然而，那些反对我们的人却处于尴尬的境地。特斯拉团队取得了巨大进展。我确实认为，如果特斯拉继续在大型经济和人权方面执行得很好，它将成为世界上最有价值的公司。但这需要很多执行力，不是说说就能做到的。不过，我们对此充满信心，我们的执行力非常出色。我认为特斯拉有机会成为世界上最有价值的公司。我对公司的未来持极度乐观的态度。
This way to predict the future is making it happen. We're making it happen here with Tesla team. So I'd just like to say thanks to all of us, borders. And I think we're going to tell you an incredibly exciting future. Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And that not has a very much as long. Service. As Elon mentioned, Q2 was an interesting quarter in a few respects. We started ramping up the production of the new model Y at all of factories. We rolled out our robot access service in Austin and delivered a car completely autonomously from directly from the factory to the customer's home. It is a seminal point to get to this thing. I mean, it took a lot of effort and I really want to thank everybody at Tesla to make this.
通过这种方式预测未来，就是在创造未来。我们正在与特斯拉团队一起实现这一点。因此，我想对我们所有人表示感谢。我们将为您描绘一个令人难以置信的激动人心的未来。非常感谢你，Elon。正如Elon所提到的，第二季度在几个方面都很有趣。我们开始在所有工厂加快Model Y新车型的生产。我们在奥斯汀推出了我们的机器人接入服务，并实现了一辆车从工厂完全自动驾驶到客户家的交付。这是一个重要的里程碑，为实现这一目标付出了很多努力，我要感谢特斯拉的每一个人。
It wasn't an easy thing to do, but we did it. It took time, but we've just begun the next phase for the company. The one big bill has a lot of changes that would affect our business and the near term. The first among those changes is the repeal of the IRA, e.v. credit of 7,500 by the end of this walk. Given the up to change, we have limited supply of vehicles in the U.S. Disco order as we have already within the times to order parts with cars. We've rolled out all our planned incentives already and will start paying them back as we start to sell. Pure the U.S. and looking to buy a car, this year or now, as we may not be able to guarantee delivery orders placed in the later part of this and beyond.
这不是一件容易的事情，但我们做到了。虽然花费了一些时间，但我们刚刚开始了公司的下一个阶段。有一项重要的法案包含许多将影响我们业务和近期发展的变化。其中第一个变化是废除《降低法案》中7500美元的电动车税收抵免，这项法案将在最后一期结束前完成。鉴于这些变动，我们在美国的车辆供应有限，因为我们已经在规定时间内下了订单以获得零部件。我们已经推出了所有计划中的激励措施，并将在开始销售时开始回购这些措施。对于住在美国并考虑今年或现在买车的人来说，我们可能无法保证在今年下半年及以后下的订单能够如期交付。
We'll also make changes to certain emission standards by releasing the amount of penalty to sale. This in turn will have an impact on the new sales of regulatory credits to other events and in turn, really to know where I meet. I mean, now, plan a business around such sales. It will nonetheless impact our total revenues quite far. The automotive product portfolio, the entire lineup is updated. Lowly we're seeing an increase in the number of test drives. We started the production of the low cost oil as planned in the first half of 25. I were given our focus on building and delivering as many vehicles as possible in the U.S. before the e-coded expires and the addition complexity of ramping a new product.
我们还将通过减少出售的罚款金额来对某些排放标准进行更改。这将对新销售的监管积分产生影响，进而可能影响其他事件，最终涉及到我需要制定相关的业务计划。尽管如此，这将对我们总收入产生相当大的影响。整个汽车产品组合已更新，试驾次数正在稳步增加。我们计划在2025年上半年按计划开始生产低成本油。考虑到我们专注于在电子编码过期之前尽可能多地在美国制造和交付车辆，同时还要应对新产品扩展带来的复杂性。
The ramp will happen next quarter, slower than we wish we expected. One thing which is grossly appreciated and Elon talked about it is that all our vehicles in the lineup are capable of a done. This is by far the biggest differentiator between us and the competition. Our vehicles stop safety standards as is, but with FSD, they are and will continue to set the new standard for safety within regular transportation. We published our vehicles have to report earlier today. You can see a car on FSD is 10x safer than the car not on FSD. We've started seeing an uptick in FSD adoption in North America in recent months, which is a very promising trend.
翻译为中文：
计划将在下一季度启动，但进展比我们期望的稍慢。一个广受赞赏的特点是，正如Elon所说，我们阵容中的所有车辆都具备这个功能。这是我们与竞争对手之间最大的区别。我们的车在安全标准方面已经达标，但凭借全自动驾驶（FSD），它们正在并将继续在常规交通中设定新的安全标准。今天早些时候我们发布了车辆安全报告。可以看到，使用FSD的车辆比不使用FSD的汽车安全性高10倍。最近几个月，我们已经开始看到FSD在北美的采用率上升，这一趋势非常有前景。
And just to give you perspective, you know, since the launch of since we moved to version 12 of FSD, we've seen the adoption rates really increase. If started seeing the on the automated revenue front, despite reduction and regulatory training and the auto, the product automotive and increased by 19% sequentially, even the product delivery is only improved 14%. This was primarily due to an improved ASBs because of the new model Y. This had been improving margin sequentially as well, along with improved mix and higher cost fixed cost absorption, despite an increase in cost of tariffs.
为了让你有个大致的了解，自从我们升级到FSD的第12版本以来，采用率确实有所增加。即使在自动化收入方面，尽管减少了监管培训，汽车业务的产品收入环比增长了19%，即使产品交付仅提高了14%。这主要得益于由于新款Model Y带来的平均销售价格（ASB）的提升。这也让我们的利润率不断提升，同时产品组合得到了优化，以及固定成本的更高吸收率，尽管关税成本有所增加。
We've started seeing the impact of tariffs in our B&L sequentially the cost of tariffs increased around 300 million with approximately two thirds of that impact in automotive and less in energy. However, given the latency in manufacturing and sales, the full impacts will come through in the following quarters, and so cost will increase in the middle. While we're doing our best to manage these impacts, we are in an unpredictable environment for the tariff front. The margins for the energy generation storage businesses in towards sequentially while deployment reduced primarily due to the ramp of power deployments at high margins.
我们已经开始注意到关税对我们业务的影响。逐步来看，关税成本增加了大约3亿，其中大约三分之二影响了汽车行业，对能源行业的影响相对较少。然而，由于制造和销售方面的滞后效应，全面影响将在接下来的几个季度显现，因此成本会在中期增加。虽然我们努力管理这些影响，但在关税方面，我们处于一个不可预测的环境中。能源发电和储存业务的利润率逐步增加，尽管部署减少，主要是因为高利润的电力项目部署上升。
You were able to achieve our highest cost profit for the business yet. Note that the overall deployments will continue to vary quarter to quarter. Think you know how it does that, you know, industrial storage will make a difference in this drive towards AI and data sector growth. The energy requirements are increasing at a rapid scale as application as a applications are very energy healthy. The quickest part to scale up energy is deployments to work. This is something that the customers have started realizing and destroyed this business having the largest impacts from tariffs.
你成功地实现了迄今为止我们业务的最高成本利润。请注意，总体部署会在各个季度间有所变化。我认为你知道这是如何做到的，工业存储将在推动人工智能和数据领域增长中发挥重要作用。由于应用程序的能耗很大，能源需求正在迅速增加。而能最快扩大能源的方法就是部署工作。这一点客户们已经开始意识到，并且这项业务受关税影响最大。
We're seeing customers willing to accept some of the tariff impacts. The big bill has certain awards impacts even for the energy business most notably on the residential storage business due to the early expiration of cousin's even cut this part end of this year. The challenges of the storage business therefore remain both from the bill and from tariffs. And we're doing our best to try and manage through this, but it will we will see shifts and demand and profitability.
我们注意到，客户愿意接受部分关税带来的影响。较大的账单确实对多个领域有影响，尤其是对能源业务中的住宅存储业务影响最显著，这是因为某些奖励政策的提前结束，要在今年年底停止。因此，存储业务面临的挑战主要来自于账单和关税方面。我们正在尽力应对这些问题，但预计需求和盈利能力将会发生变化。
The margins for our service and other businesses improves sequentially primarily due to higher profits from supercharging and improvement in insurance and service center profitability. Operating expenses also grew sequentially as we continue our investment in air projects, including additional expenses related to employee related costs including higher stock risk compensation and depreciation for air compute. Our operating expenses, especially a lot indeed related spend will continue to grow. We believe even in the current environment, it is the right strategy to keep making investments in these areas to position us for the long term.
我们的服务和其他业务的利润率逐步提高，这主要是由于超级充电服务带来了更高的利润，并且保险和服务中心的盈利能力也有所改善。同时，我们的运营费用也有所增加，因为我们继续在空中项目上进行投资，其中包括与员工相关的成本增加，比如更高的股票风险补偿和空中计算的折旧。我们的运营费用，特别是许多研发相关的支出，将继续增长。我们认为，即使在当前环境下，继续在这些领域进行投资是正确的战略，这将有助于我们在长期中占据有利地位。
Other income grew sequentially primarily from the market adjustment on red corn buildings, which was 284 million gain in Q2 while being 125 million loss in Q1. Just wanted to remind people that this would keep creating volatility based on the Bitcoin pricing. While operating cash was increased sequentially, so did our catbacks resulting in 146 million of free cash flow. We continue to make investments in various aspects of manufacturing like cybercab, semi lines and other manufacturing spend and the expansion of our air initiatives. Our latest expectation for the year in terms of capax is in excess of 9 billion.
其他收入逐步增长，主要是由于红玉米建筑市场的调整：第二季度实现了2.84亿的收益，而第一季度则损失了1.25亿。要提醒大家的是，这会根据比特币价格不断产生波动。尽管经营现金流逐步增加，但我们的资本支出也同步增长，最终实现了1.46亿的自由现金流。我们继续在制造业的各个领域进行投资，如网络计程车、半导体生产线等，同时扩大我们的航空项目。我们对全年资本支出的最新预期是超过90亿。
To summarize, we have needed to allege in our business due to the negative impacts of the bill and tariffs. However, the investments that we have made for AI, robotics and our lead in energy sets us up for a bright future. I would like to thank the whole Tesla team, our customers, investors and supporters for their continued belief in us. Great. Thank you very much, Bethel.
总而言之，由于法案和关税带来的负面影响，我们在业务中不得不做出调整。然而，我们在人工智能、机器人技术以及能源领域的投资，使我们在未来拥有光明的前景。我要感谢整个特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和支持者对我们的持续信任。非常感谢你，Bethel。
So now we're going to move on to say our con questions. The first question is, can you give us some insight on how robot taxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities and supervisors? Yes, robot actually has been doing great so far in Austin, customer should have the experience. Like super smooth, very safe and like just a great experience overall.
现在，我们将继续讨论我们的问题。第一个问题是：您能否为我们提供一些关于机器人出租车表现如何的见解？以及在车辆数量、地理围栏、城市和监督方面，您预计会以什么速度扩大？是的，机器人出租车在奥斯汀的表现一直很好。顾客应该拥有如同超级顺畅、非常安全以及总体上极佳的体验。
And we already did the first day of expansion Austin and continue to expand in Austin to probably more than 10 extra our current operating region. We're also testing in order for the cities as you all mentioned, the next thing to expand would be in the San Francisco Bay area. We are working with the government to get approval here and meanwhile launch the service with the person that I received just to expedite and widely wait for regulatory approval. We're also testing in order for the cities in the US, including Florida, Nevada, etc. Thank you very much.
我们已经在奥斯汀完成了扩张的第一天，并继续在奥斯汀扩展，可能会比我们目前的营业区域多10倍。正如你们所提到的，我们正在测试其他城市，下一步的扩展将是旧金山湾区。我们正在与政府合作以获得这里的批准，同时用我刚接到的人员启动服务，以加速进行，同时等待监管批准。我们也在美国的其他城市进行测试，包括佛罗里达州、内华达州等。非常感谢。
The next question is, what are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Keep it by the timeline. We're certainly getting there. I think it'll be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies. We're just being very careful about it. This is not something which we don't do much. We want to make sure that everything is safe before we maintain for available broadly.
下一步的问题是，无人监管的完全自动驾驶技术在个人使用中仍面临哪些关键的技术和监管障碍？考虑到时间表，我们的确在朝这个方向努力。我认为，到今年年底，在某些地区将可以实现无人监管的个人使用。不过我们对此非常谨慎。这不是我们随便处理的事情。我们希望在广泛推出之前，确保所有一切都是安全的。
We're extremely friendly. Yes. But I'll be I'm confident that by the end of this year within a number of cities in the US, we will help you available to end users like. For what is within the same way hardware in the Austin robot taxi vehicles has some customer vehicles and we did your car autonomously from the factory to a customer this one. Yes.
我们非常友好。是的。但是，我有信心，今年年底前，我们将在美国的多个城市提供帮助，使其对终端用户可用。就像在奥斯汀的自动驾驶出租车中使用的硬件一样，有些客户的车辆也是如此。我们确实实现了从工厂到客户的整个过程由汽车自动驾驶完成。是的。
And every test I'm manufactured in the US and in Europe, autonomous headlights itself from the end of time to the loading blocks. And so it's just as hot out of beta. I think we'll be willing to put delivering cars in the greater Western area. And the Bay Area by default from the factory by the end of this year. I could call well deliver itself to your yard unless you say you don't want to. There be some cool.
每一次测试都是在美国和欧洲制造的，自动前灯是从时间的尽头到装载模块本身。所以它刚刚从测试阶段出来。我认为我们愿意在今年年底前在大部分西方地区和湾区直接从工厂交付汽车。如果你不反对的话，我可以让汽车自动送到你家门口。这真的很酷。
Okay. Thank you guys. The next question is what specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? Have a Tesla envisioned Optimus contributing to revenue the next two to three years? Yeah. So. The Optimus Optimus 3 design, as I mentioned earlier, is I think finally the right design the way for the optimizations, but they're not.
好的，谢谢大家。下一个问题是：Optimus 目前在工厂中执行哪些具体任务？预计何时能扩大生产，实现对外销售？特斯拉是否期望在未来两到三年内通过Optimus增加收入？
是的，如我之前提到的，我认为Optimus 3的设计终于达到了我们想要的优化效果，但还不够。
I think of fundamental changes to that are needed for the Optimus 3 design. It has all the degrees of freedom that you really want. So it's, you know, I've prototypes of that and I don't know three or three months and it's such a long production. We'll certainly start production on that in the beginning next year. The production around simple, so is a conflict.
我认为Optimus 3设计需要一些根本性的改变。它具备您真正想要的所有自由度。我已经制作了一些原型，大概用了三个月，而这花费了很长的时间。我们肯定会在明年年初开始生产。生产过程相对简单，但也存在一些矛盾。
The ES curve of your production around. When something is got an entire when everything is new because the rate of production will move as fast as the least lucky and least competent elements of the entire supply chain as well as internal processes. So the more new stuff that is in a product, the slower the ramp could be because of unexpected supply chain interruptions or the states made it internally.
在你生产的过程中，会有一个ES曲线。当所有东西都是全新的时候，生产的速度会受到整个供应链中运气最差和能力最弱的环节以及内部流程的影响。所以，产品中新东西越多，由于供应链的意外中断或内部出现的错误，生产提升的速度可能就会越慢。
As much as it's predicted. So the end of the end of the ES curve or late in the ES curve, then the beginning of the ES curve. And the beginning of the ES curve of the production around. In any case, not really material for any purposes. The beginning of the ES curve key. And you're usually, I usually always negative, of course, margin.
尽可能按照预测。也就是说，在ES曲线的末尾或者ES曲线接近末尾的地方，然后是ES曲线的开始阶段。ES曲线开始阶段的大致生产情况。无论如何，对于任何目的来说，其实都没有太大意义。在ES曲线的开始阶段，通常情况下，我通常一直是负的，当然，也就是利润率负。
And you're debugging in my issues. So. That's why I like it's it's I feel like fairly confident predicting things. Please medium confident in predicting where we are five years, but it's hard to predict where we are in a year or two years. So that's why I think five years. I think we could be at the. Let me put this right. I'll be surprised if at the end of five years. 60 months from now, if we are not. Roughly making a hundred thousand optimists, robots in one. In 60 months, I would be shocked. Sorry.
这是一个关于预测未来与调试问题的对话，所以我对预测感到比较自信。我认为五年后的变化比较容易预测，但一两年后的变化就很难说。因此，我更倾向于谈论五年后的情况。让我这样说吧，如果五年后，也就是60个月后，我们没有大致生产出十万台乐观主义者机器人，我会非常惊讶。抱歉。
Thank you very much. Next question is, can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for tests as more affordable models? And what are these models balanced cost reduction profitability? And what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate? Well, I think by the way, good job of answering this question is opening remarks. As we said, we start production in June and we're writing it all we built some things around the quarter. And given that that we're starting North America and the. Our goals to maximize production.
非常感谢你。下一个问题是，能否提供关于测试更经济实惠型号的开发和生产时间表的最新信息？这些型号如何在降低成本和盈利能力之间取得平衡？在当前经济环境下，你们预期对需求会有怎样的影响？顺便说一句，我认为你们在开场白中已经很好地回答了这个问题。正如我们所说，我们将在六月开始生产，我们正在为这一季度做一些准备。鉴于此，我们将在北美开始生产。我们的目标是最大化生产。
I rate defending Q three. We're going to keep pushing hard on our current models, with way computing. Fortunately, it was away and we'll be ready for more affordable models available for going to Q four. And you know, the goal of both products was not to negatively impact revenue or gross margin, but just to make a. The car that everyone loves at once at a more affordable price. Great. Thank you, Lars.
我给第三季度的防御评级为三颗星。我们将继续全力推动当前的模型，并加强计算能力。幸运的是，模型已经准备就绪，我们将在第四季度推出更实惠的版本。你知道，这两款产品的目标并不是对收入或毛利产生负面影响，而是为了打造一款人人都喜爱的汽车，并以更亲民的价格提供。好的，谢谢，Lars。
The next question is, can you talk about the benefits of Tesla investing in X. This is not the forum for this. I mean, if there is something which we need to discuss, we'll discuss it separately. I think obviously, you know, we're publicly created company shareholders are welcome to put forward any shoulder proposals that they'd like. I recently encouraged that. And then have shareholders vote and will act in accordance with the shareholder wishes.
下一个问题是：您能谈谈特斯拉投资于X的好处吗？ 这里不是讨论这个问题的场合。我的意思是，如果有需要讨论的事情，我们会另外讨论。我想，显然，您知道我们是一家上市公司，股东欢迎提出任何他们想要的提议。我最近鼓励过这样做。然后，让股东投票，我们会根据股东的意愿采取行动。
Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, can you tell us a little bit more about what goes on in a Tesla design studio. Do you want me to take that one? We can't generally say that. What happens in the studio stays in the studio. And that, you know, earnings calls are not the place to disclose new product stuff, but we're, you know, working to. We have an exciting future for Tesla in our in the product lineup.
很好，非常感谢。下一个问题是，您能否多介绍一下特斯拉设计工作室的情况？需要我来回答吗？我们通常不便透露太多，工作室里的事情一般是保密的。在财报电话会议上也不会披露新产品的信息，不过我们正在努力。特斯拉的产品阵容有一个令人激动的未来。
Yeah, there's a lot of exciting things happening in the studio. It's not like static. And really, what's going to happen over the next several years is a fundamental transformation of the company from the pre autonomy wall to opposed autonomy. And I'm working on a new master plan to articulate that. Tesla team. And. You know, they're there are there will be some heating pains as you transition from pre autonomy to a positive timing world.
是的，工作室里发生了很多令人兴奋的事情。这并不是静态的。接下来几年，公司将从“预自动驾驶”彻底转型为“全面自动驾驶”。我正在制定一个新的总体规划，以清晰表达这一点。特斯拉团队会经历这次转型。在从“预自动驾驶”到“全面自动驾驶”的过程中，会有一些磨合的挑战。
But I think that the future version of Tesla is currently exciting. And we'll profoundly change the world in a good way. So you sound like sort of I have a bit. I think if we'll let you say if we execute on a plan effectively, which is you have to actually do that. Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far. Thank you.
但我认为，未来的特斯拉是非常令人兴奋的。它将以一种积极的方式深刻地改变世界。所以听起来有点像我的想法。我觉得如果我们能有效执行计划，特斯拉将成为世界上最有价值的公司。谢谢。
The next question is actually do book it on unsupervised. Do you question vehicles? And after that is are there any news for hardware three users getting retrofits or upgrades? Will they get hardware for or some future version of hardware five? I mean, what we want to do is we want to get unsupervised done on hardware for first. Once it's done, then we'll go back and look at what we need to do with the hardware three cars.
下一个问题实际上是：是否将不受监督地进行预订？你会质疑车辆吗？然后是关于拥有硬件3的用户是否会有任何硬件升级的消息？他们会得到硬件4或未来版本的硬件5吗？我们的目标是首先在硬件4上实现不需要监督的功能。一旦完成，我们将回过头来研究硬件3的车辆需要做些什么。
I mean, the like I said the focus is first to get unsupervised out. And then we'll go back and see what more work you need to do. Okay. Next question question is, can you give an update on dojo and could XA I be a customer for dojo? Dojo to we expect to have dojo to operating in scale sometime next year. With scale being somewhere around 100 K a 200 equivalent.
我的意思是，正如我之前所说，首先的重点是推出无监督版本。然后我们会回过头来看看还有哪些工作需要做。好的。下一个问题是，你能给我们更新一下Dojo的情况吗？XA I会成为Dojo的客户吗？我们预计Dojo 2将在明年某个时候大规模运作，规模大约相当于10万到20万的计算能力。
And. And then a five which is really spectacular to use those words. Lightly spectacular to the AI five truck will be hopefully be in volume production around the end of next year. That has a lot of potential. I think you know, think about dojo three and the AI six in first chip. It seems like intuitively you we want to try to find convergence there.
翻译成中文如下：
而且。接着说，5号产品（five）真的是一个非常出色的东西，使用那些字眼来形容实在是太贴切了。据说到明年年底，这款轻量级的5号AI卡车有望进入量产阶段。这其中蕴含了很大的潜力。我想你知道的，考虑到Dojo 3和首款AI 6芯片，看起来我们直观地希望在这两者之间找到某种融合点。
It's basically the same chip. But is used what we use a two of them in a car or an optimist. And maybe a larger number on a on a board. And then you can find a five or 12 on a board or something like that. If you want high bandwidth communication between the chips. For serving. Digging it burns. That sort of seems like intuitively the sense of way to go.
这基本上是同一个芯片。但是，我们在汽车或优化器中使用其中的两个，可能在一个电路板上使用更多的数量。然后你可能会发现一个电路板上有五个或十二个这样的芯片，如果你想要芯片之间进行高速通信的话。这样做可以实现更高的带宽，这样的方法直观上看似乎是合理的。
Great. The next set of questions have all actually been covered. So we'll end with that. How will the BBV elimination of tax credits for solar projects affect your sales pipeline for mega back? Yeah, our sales pipeline is quite diversifying across customers and market segments. So we aren't heavily weighted and mega pack projects that are paired with solar.
好的。接下来的问题实际上都已经讨论过了。所以我们就到此结束吧。BBV取消太阳能项目的税收抵免将如何影响您在大型储能系统方面的销售业务？我们的销售渠道在客户和市场领域上是相当多元化的，因此我们并不严重依赖于与太阳能配对的大型储能项目。
And as we talked about in the opening remarks for seeing storage quickly being recognized for its ability to unlock great efficiency and how quickly it can be deployed to help the grid. Additionally, although the recent bill was not favorable towards solar, we believe solar projects will still get built because the energy is necessary. The projects are well developed and they're ready for execution and. There's really no alternatives in the near term given gas turbine lead time and pricing. We also continue to see growth in the data center segment and then stand alone storage projects providing capacity to the grid.
正如我们在开场讲话中提到的，储能技术正在迅速被认可，因为它能够显著提高效率，并且可以迅速部署以支持电网发展。此外，尽管最近的法案对太阳能不太有利，但我们相信太阳能项目仍会继续建设，因为这些能源是必需的。项目的开发已经很成熟，并且已经准备好执行。鉴于燃气轮机的生产周期和成本，目前在短期内实际上没有其它替代方案。我们还观察到数据中心领域的增长以及独立储能项目为电网提供容量。
In several markets across the US. So we're forecasting a very strong second half of the year as we increase deployments. And lastly, we continue to invest heavily in US manufacturing to mitigate policy and tariff impacts, expecting our first. LFP sell manufacturing facility to be online by the end of the year and launching our third mega factory near Houston and 2026. Thank you, Mike. We will now be moving to endless questions.
在美国的几个市场中，我们预计今年下半年会非常强劲，因为我们将增加部署。最后，我们继续大力投资于美国制造，以缓解政策和关税的影响，预计我们的第一个LFP电池制造设施将在年底上线，并将在2026年在休斯顿附近启动我们的第三个大型工厂。谢谢你，Mike。我们现在将进入无尽的问题环节。
The first question comes from a manual Rosner at Wolf Research. Many will please feel free to unmute yourself whenever you're ready. Great. Thank you so much. Can you hear me? Yep. Thanks. So, Elon, are you able to share any KPI with us in terms of the robot taxi business? How many vehicles are you operating? Miles driven autonomously or the number of safety critical intervention? Just curious, you know, how the rollout is it generally is going in any sort of like targets that you could share more broadly. Sure.
第一个问题来自Wolf Research的Rosner。请随时准备好后取消静音提问。好的，非常感谢。你能听到我吗？可以，听得见。谢谢。埃隆，你能否与我们分享一些关于机器人出租车业务的关键绩效指标？比如你们目前运营多少辆车，自动驾驶行驶里程，或者安全关键干预的次数等？我很好奇，想了解一下整体进展如何，有没有什么目标是你可以更广泛分享的。当然可以。
Yeah. We have more than 7000 miles operating in Austin area. It's just because services new. We have. And full of vehicles right now, but then we're trying to expand the service in terms of both the area and also the number of vehicles for the Austin and other locations. So far, you know, the. There's like no notable safety critical incidents there. You know, sometimes we have our own restrictions as to, for example, we are instinctive or speedy to 40 miles per hour.
好的。我们现在在奥斯汀地区运营超过7000英里。这主要是因为我们有新的服务。目前我们的车辆很多，但我们正在努力扩大服务范围，包括增加奥斯汀以及其他地区的运营范围和车辆数量。截至目前，还没有发生过重大的安全事故。有时候，我们会受到一些自身限制，比如我们的速度限制在每小时40英里以内。
And the vehicle wants to go on like high speed or speak and stop the vehicle, but those are a lot of convenient. I suppose to say critical nature. So for the service that we really will receive and we continue to expand on it. Great. And then. Yeah, longer term from an economic point of view, longer term, you've previously talked about working to drive down the cost per mile on the robot axes, maybe towards 30 or 40 cents per mile over time.
这段内容的大意是：汽车希望以较高的速度行驶，或者进行语音控制来停车，但这些功能都是相当便利的。我想说的是，这些功能对于服务的关键性是显而易见的，我们会持续提升这些服务。好的，从长远的经济角度来看，你之前提到过希望通过努力降低机器人出租车每英里的成本，也许最终能将其降到每英里30或40美分。
Now that your service is live, how should we think about the main milestones to getting there? Yeah, what the cybercam is, which is really optimized for autonomy. That I think has got to probably sub 30 cent per mile potential over time, maybe 25. Yeah, it's really. You're like if you design a car from scratch to be a cost optimized robotic taxi, thanks to every cap. You know, you're like, for example, we're not trying to make it, you know, corner, like a, like incredibly well, like a model three would, you know, or model S or even model white.
现在您的服务已经上线了，我们该如何看待达到这个目标的主要里程碑呢？是的，我们谈论的是一种非常优化用于自动化的“网络摄像头”。我认为，从长远来看，它的成本可能会降到每英里不到30美分，也许是25美分左右。是的，实际上，您就像是从头开始设计一辆成本优化的机器人出租车，不同于其他品牌的汽车。比如说，我们并不追求让它像Model 3、Model S或者甚至Model Y那样在转弯时表现得非常出色。
Like it's got more, most of this, you know, model all about all of our cars that are driven by people are super fun to drive. They've got incredible acceleration. You know, the incredible cornering capability. But we're confident that very few people in a cybercap want to be hoodling around. So, you know, so we were, we've reduced the top end speed, which means we can use more efficient tires. We don't need as much acceleration.
这段话可以翻译成：我们的所有汽车都由人驾驶，驾驶起来非常有趣。它们拥有极佳的加速性能和转弯能力。不过，我们相信很少有人在赛博车中会想要高速驾驶。因此，我们降低了车子的最高速度，这样就可以使用更节能的轮胎，也不需要那么强的加速性能。这样设计是为了提供更好的驾驶体验。
We don't need as much. You know, fake breaks, sort of, we weren't stopping distance, but we were not expecting it to be heavily used. It's a gentle right, essentially, you've, you've decided for a gentle right. And, and then you, you have a much more optimized, optimized design point. So that that's why it seems probably achieved that. Especially often optimizes, you know, so, so, being cleaning up the car and making maintenance and stuff.
我们不需要那么多。你知道，像是虚假的刹车，我们并没有完全停下来，但我们也没预料到会被频繁使用。基本上是一个缓和的右转，你已经决定采取这样的右转。这样一来，你就有了一个更优化的设计点。这就是为什么它看起来可能达到了这个效果。尤其是在优化时，经常需要对车辆进行清理和维护等工作。
And it's, you know, what automatic charging. So it, I think it's going to actually cost for a mile of cybercap will be very low. The cost for a mile of our existing fee will be higher, but still very competitive. So, yeah, maybe some number of 50 cents in viscosity. Yeah, so this really tells road taxi people go from tiny to gigantic in terms of operations. And pretty sure period of time.
这段话的大意是：
“你知道，这是自动充电。所以我认为，‘Cyberspace’（假设是指某种自动出租车服务）的每英里成本将会非常低。我们现有车队的每英里成本会高一些，但仍然具有很强的竞争力。可能每英里成本会在50美分左右。这意味着路面出租车的运营规模会在短时间内从微小变得非常庞大。”
Like my guess is, as it has a material impact on our financials around the end of next year. Thank you very much. The next question comes from Adam at morning Stanley. Adam, please unmute yourself. Great. Hello, everybody. So Elon as Tesla moves into this next phase of physical AI, autonomous human, human, robot taxes, etc. World changing, civilizational species, species changing technology with dual purpose.
我猜想，由于它会对明年年底左右的财务产生实质性影响。非常感谢。下一个问题来自晨星的亚当。亚当，请取消静音。好的，大家好。那么，埃隆，随着特斯拉进入物理AI、自主人类、人形机器人出租车等下一个阶段，这将是一种改变世界、改变文明的技术，并且具有双重用途。
Are you comfortable moving Tesla in this direction, while only having a 13% stake in the economy. Sorry, in the company, is that sustainable or does the still insist that something needs to happen, given, you know, your current lack of control and the types of technologies you're getting into. Yeah, that is a major concern for you. As I mentioned in the past, and I hope that is addressed at the upcoming shareholders meeting. But yeah, it is a big deal. You know, I want to find that I've got like so little control that I can easily be ousted by activist shareholders after having bolts. You know, these is army of humanoid robots. I think that as I mentioned before, I think my control of a Tesla should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can't be thrown out if I go crazy.
您是否愿意在只拥有公司13%股份的情况下，推动特斯拉朝这个方向发展？这样做是否可持续，或者说在您目前缺乏控制的情况下以及您正在涉足的技术领域，是否依然需要采取某些行动？如您所知，这是一个重大关切问题。正如我以前提到的，我希望在即将召开的股东大会上能解决这个问题。确实，这很重要。我希望在努力推进这些事情后，不会因为自己控制权太少而轻易被激进的股东排挤。我觉得我对特斯拉的控制权应该足够确保公司朝好的方向发展，但也不会多到无法被踢出以防万一我做出疯狂的决定。
Okay, Elon, you're not going to go crazy. We trust you. You can stay a little crazy, a little crazy is okay. Elon, no, we understand the board of directors of a major US investment bank recently toward optimist production. I don't know if you want to confirm that or not. It's just what we've heard. That's cool. Well, when do you think others will be able to get a firsthand view of optimists like that? And it's the second half of this year too soon to have an AIDA because it seems like everybody else in the world's doing it and this talent war is getting freaking crazy.
好的，Elon，你不会疯的。我们相信你。你可以保持一点疯狂，一点疯狂没关系。Elon，我们知道一个大型美国投资银行的董事会最近参观了Optimist的生产。我不知道你是否想确认这一点。这只是我们听说的。很好。那么，你认为其他人什么时候能像这样亲眼目睹Optimist？今年下半年是否太早推出AI设计，因为似乎全世界的其他方面都在这样做，而这场人才争夺战变得非常激烈。
And I know you mentioned for recruiting purposes. It's a very important thing that you've done. I think people have copied you on this and I'm wondering if this is if this year's too early for that. Thanks, Elon. It's a bit of a tough thing because like when we do an AIDA, we find that several of them literally done a frame by frame examination of our slides and everything we say and then coffee is. So, you know, I've say like what's the trade off we just help with recruiting, but then competitors look very closely in copious.
我知道你提到这是为了招聘的目的。这是你完成的一件非常重要的事情。我觉得有人在这方面模仿了你，我在想今年是否太早了。谢谢你，Elon。这有点困难，因为当我们进行AIDA分析时，我们发现有些人会逐帧检查我们的幻灯片和我们所说的一切，然后进行模仿。所以你知道，我会说这是一个权衡，我们帮助了招聘，但竞争对手也会仔细研究并模仿我们的内容。
I mean, that said we should probably I mean, I guess we could consider the shareholder meeting to be sort of an eight. We can do we can maybe go into depth some some amount of depth at the I know showholder meeting with respect to optimists and AI and sort of that action chip stuff perhaps. Yeah, it tells us that we're also really underrated in terms of AI chip design as well as I software. So like this little nut, I showed that we were that that exists that we will prefer to point on a car that is any I just that we would prefer to put in the car over our own. And even though it's been now opposable years.
我的意思是，我们应该考虑股东大会为一次讨论的机会。在大会上，我们可以深入探讨一些关于乐观主义者、人工智能以及行动芯片方面的内容。这个过程也让我们意识到，我们在AI芯片设计和软件方面其实被低估了。我展示了一个小装置，表明我们更愿意将其安装在汽车上，而不是我们的自家产品。即使多年过去了，这种偏好依然存在。
And we're confident that the environment will be a profound danger. In fact, it's so powerful that we'll have to nerf it for some degree for markets outside of the US because it's low way past the export restrictions. So less export restrictions change. We actually will have to know if our AI by showers to look kind of weird hopefully those hopefully we keep in raising the bar on export restrictions otherwise the kids but silly. We'll have a bunch of optimists from once on stage. At the showholder meeting. The optimist and atmosphere is cool to see it looks like it basically looks like the center westworld.
我们确信，环境将构成严重威胁。事实上，它的影响力如此强大，以至于我们不得不在美国以外的市场对其进行一定程度的削弱，因为它远远超出了出口限制。因此，除非出口限制发生变化，我们实际上会不得不对我们的人工智能进行调整，使其在外观上显得有些古怪。希望我们能不断提高出口限制的门槛，否则情况可能会让人哭笑不得。在股东大会上，我们会看到一群乐观主义者。这种乐观和氛围令人惊叹，看起来就像是在西部世界的中心。
It's probably robots and various stages. Some of them. At various stages of prepare. Like I don't know some some combination of like the tattooing junkyard and the and westworld. And optimist is walking around the office here in pile. So 24 seven is just walking around like it's normal. And I think I'm so if you're optimist like you know that has a diner so we'll go on. Yeah, so it's we'll go from world where robots are rare to where they're so common that you don't even look up. Great. Thank you so much.
这可能是指机器人处于不同阶段。有些是在不同的准备阶段。我不是很确定，这有点像塔图因的废品场和《西部世界》的结合体。Optimist 机器人一直在办公室里四处走动，24小时不停地走动，就像很正常的一样。我觉得，如果你是 Optimist 就知道有一个餐厅，所以我们将继续前进。是的，我们将从一个机器人稀少的世界走向一个机器人非常普遍，以至于你都不会抬头去注意它们的世界。非常感谢。
The next question comes from Edison at Georgia bank. S&P Sun New Year's South. And simply go ahead and unmute yourself. Right. Well, Edison figures that out. We will go to the next question, which is going to come from Dan Levi at Barclays. Dan, please go ahead and unmute yourself. Great. Thank you. You want to talk about the opportunity to put non Tesla own vehicles into the robot taxi network. Just talk about the gating factors to enabling that and what timeline we should expect on. Personally own vehicles in the robot taxi network.
下一个问题来自乔治亚银行的爱迪生。标普阳光新年南。请自行解除静音。好的，在爱迪生搞清楚的同时，我们将继续下一个问题，这个问题来自巴克莱的丹·莱维。丹，请解除静音。好的，谢谢。你想讨论一下将非特斯拉车辆加入到自动驾驶出租车网络中的机会。请谈谈实现这一目标的限制因素，以及我们可以期待的时间表。在个人拥有的车辆加入自动驾驶出租车网络方面。
So we haven't really thought hard about that. I really need to make sure it works when the vehicles are fully under our control. And he has kind of wants to stay for the time here. We don't want to jump again. As I said, we're going paranoid about safety. So. So it's like. But I guess. I guess it would do like next year is. I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year. People will be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla fleet.
我们其实没有认真考虑过这个问题。我真的需要确保当车辆完全在我们控制下时，它能够正常运行。而且他有点想在这里多待一段时间。我们不想再次仓促行动。如我所说，我们对安全问题非常谨慎。所以，大概就是这样。不过我想，我想这是明年的事情。我可以有信心地说是明年，不确定具体是明年的什么时候，但我有信心是明年。到时人们可以将他们的车辆加入或退出特斯拉车队。
I mean, one thing to keep in mind is that we will have some criteria because like even when you put your car in a world lift need. I go through a checklist process of making sure things are working. Second, everything be your. Yes, bad. We will do something like that. Yes. We want to be parallel on the security. As it's more things like trend on the tire can't have an impact on safety. So that's why we would want to do some proper validation before we let other cars come in. So that's what we're going to do.
我的意思是，有一点需要注意，我们会设定一些标准。就像你把车放在世界升降机上时，我都会经过一个检查的流程来确保一切正常。此外，所有东西都要是你的。是的，情况不好的话，我们会采取措施。我们希望在安全方面保持一致性，因为轮胎的磨损等问题可能会影响安全性。所以这就是为什么在让其他车辆进来之前，我们要进行一些适当的验证。这就是我们的计划。
So that's what we're going to do. Did you evolve it? Yes, thank you. Could you just unpack the different costs associated with scaling the robotaxe business and how you think about. And then you can use, you know, would you just fund it off the balance sheet? Well, as there is a clear cash flow stream associated with any product, you can defend. And in the interim. We will use our balance sheet, but like once we get to a certain scale in terms of the current news.
所以这就是我们要做的事情。你进化了吗？是的，谢谢。你能不能详细说明一下扩大机器人出租车业务所涉及的不同成本，以及你是怎么考虑这些问题的？然后，你可以想想，你会不会只用资产负债表来资助它？好吧，由于任何产品都有明确的现金流，你可以为此辩护。在此期间，我们会使用我们的资产负债表，但一旦我们在当前消息所指的某个规模上达成一致……
Like Elon said, we could get into an easily a kind of transaction to try and get funny. Great. Thanks much. We will now move on to Mark from Goldman Sachs. Mark, please feel free to unmute yourself. Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking the questions with the FSD trials that Tesla has been offering to consumers and the attention on self driving more generally. Are you a bit more specifically on what you're seeing with FSD subscription trends and take rates and help us better understand how large FSD revenue may be currently.
正如埃隆所说，我们可以轻松地进行交易，尝试获得一些乐趣。好，非常感谢。接下来，我们将请高盛的马克发言。马克，请随时取消静音。是的，下午好。非常感谢您回答关于特斯拉提供给消费者的FSD（完全自动驾驶）试用以及对自动驾驶关注的问题。您能具体谈谈FSD订阅趋势和接受率吗？帮助我们更好地了解当前FSD的收入规模有多大。
Well, we've definitely I mentioned it in my opening remarks since we've launched version 12 of FSD in North America. We've definitely seen a marked improvement in the FSD adaption. And it's the other thing which we had also done last year is we did bring down the pricing and we made subscription much more affordable. So we have seen you know, 45% increase since that time. So which is an encouraging trend, but honestly, we we've just started the story around explaining the benefits of FSD, which I like I said before we released our vehicle safety board.
在我的开场白中，我确实提到了自从我们在北美推出FSD第12版以来，我们已经看到FSD的适应能力有了显著提高。另外，去年的另一项举措是降低了价格，让订阅更加实惠。因此，自那时以来，我们看到了45%的增长。这是一个令人鼓舞的趋势，但说实话，我们刚刚开始讲述FSD优势的故事，就像我们之前发布了车辆安全报告一样。
And if you don't believe in this anything else, a car on FSD being 10X safer should be a motivator. Plus the other thing is people don't realize even at $99 a month. It's like you're getting a first one show for almost $3.33 a day. And this is my father biggest game changer, which I know we've been talking about it because part of it is we live and breathe it. But yeah, the best people still don't know.
如果你对其他的说法不相信，那么至少考虑一下自动驾驶汽车的安全性是普通汽车的10倍，这应该是一个激励因素。另外，人们常常没意识到，即使每个月花费99美元，这相当于每天只花了大约3.33美元。对于我父亲来说，这是一个巨大的改变，尽管我们已经讨论了很多，因为我们生活在这种技术中，但很多人仍然不知道。
Yeah, but the vast majority of people don't know it exists. And it's still like half of Tesla owners who could use it haven't tried it even once. This they don't actually realize that. I think this is something we want to educate them on. So we've got a when they come in for service. We'll reach out to them send them like videos of how to make work. And most of it's such a shocking thing. They don't think the car is capable of this.
是的，但绝大多数人并不知道它的存在。而且即使是特斯拉的车主中，有一半的人本可以使用这种功能，但他们一次都没有尝试过。实际上，他们可能还没有意识到这一点。我认为我们需要对此进行宣传教育。因此，当他们来到服务中心时，我们会跟他们交流，并发送一些教学视频，告诉他们如何使用这个功能。很多人会感到震惊，因为他们从未想到车子竟然能做到这些。
So you have to have to show them and and and get the comfortable returning it on. It's so trivial, but it's. It's like saying you've got a cat sing a dance, but it just looks like an old cat. And you're like, you know, until you see the cat sing a dance and talk like you're seeing was just a cat. That's that's Tesla Steve. Yes, our car is intelligent. And so what we're going to do to Elon's point, like we've been giving the free time to try and try this is deep.
所以你必须向他们展示，并且让他们逐渐习惯使用。这听起来很简单，但就像你让一只猫唱歌跳舞，但它看上去只是一只普通的老猫。就好像你一直认为它只是只猫，直到你真的看到它在唱歌跳舞和说话。这就是特斯拉的特点。是的，我们的汽车是智能的。我们要做的就是，正如Elon所说的那样，给人们自由时间来尝试，这是一个深刻的过程。
We'll start giving more prompt to say, OK, this particular drive, try FSD. So that I mean, because it's literally seeing is believing like you lots had it's. Think of it like a cat. It looks like a normal cat, but this cat can sing a dance. Yeah, same thing on it. Great. Yeah. And that 25% comment was 25% increase in the penetration. Yes, since we've seen the release of D12 B30 head in North America.
我们将开始更多地提醒大家，比如在某个特定的情况下尝试使用FSD（全自动驾驶）。因为，正所谓“眼见为实”。你可以想象一下，就像一只普通的猫，但这只猫会唱歌跳舞。是的，情况就是这样的。那25%的评论是指自从我们在北美发布了D12 B30版本以来，用户使用FSD的比例增加了25%。
Great. Thank you. Mark, did you have a follow up question? Yeah, I think strives Tesla has historically said it would use pricing as one tool to help drive auto vehicle growth as long as free cash flow state positive given the ability to monetize products like FSD. I'm curious how you're thinking about pricing from here as an essential tool to drive increased volumes given where you stand with FSD, as well as the fact that the IRA purchased tax credits are poised to go away in the US started in the fourth quarter.
好的，谢谢你。马克，你还有什么问题要问吗？是的，我有一个问题。特斯拉过去一直表示，只要自由现金流保持正数，它会把定价作为推动汽车销量增长的工具之一，考虑到可以通过像FSD这样的产品来盈利。我想了解一下，在当前FSD的发展状况下，你们是如何看待将定价作为提高销量的重要工具的，因为美国的IRA购车税收抵免政策将在第四季度开始取消。
Yes, should we expect more meaningful price reductions given that monetization potential or do you envision price reductions be more limited compared to cost downs given where free cash flow now stands thanks. Well, we're in this like we're transition period where we'll lose a lot of incentives in the US. So in centers actually many other parts of the world, but we'll listen in the US. And because so if it at the early stages of autonomy.
好的，我们是否应该期待更有意义的价格降低，考虑到收益潜力，或者您认为价格降低与成本下降相比会更有限，鉴于目前自由现金流的状况？谢谢。嗯，我们现在正处于一个过渡期，在美国我们将失去很多激励措施。在世界其他很多地方也是如此，但主要是在美国。而原因是在自动驾驶的初期阶段。
On the other hand, autonomy is most advanced and most available from a regulatory standpoint in the US. So. I mean, does that mean like we could have a few rough quarters? Yeah, we probably could have a few rough quarters. I'm not saying they're well, but we could. Q, you know, Q4, Q1. Maybe Q2, but once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of the next year, certainly by the end of next year. I think the. I'm really surprised if Tesla economics are not very compelling. Great. The next question is going to come from Will for truest will please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready.
另一方面，从监管的角度来看，美国的自动驾驶技术最为先进也最为普及。所以，我的意思是，这是否意味着我们可能会遇到几个艰难的季度？是的，我们可能会有几个艰难的季度。我不是说一定会这样，但有可能。也许是第四季度、第一季度，甚至可能是第二季度。但是，一旦我们在明年下半年实现大规模自动驾驶，特别是到明年年底，我会对特斯拉的经济状况不够吸引人大感意外。好的，下一个问题将由Will提问，Will，请在准备好后随时取消静音。
Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions. First, I'd like to ask for a little bit more detail about the lower costs model that you talked about having. I think started production in the first half, but you said will ramp later. At the last analyst days I recall you talked about some aspects of this like two, two thirds of three quarters reduction and so can carbide and not using rare earths in the. In the motor and perhaps other cost downs. You also had this unboxed architecture that I think you said would not be part of this sort of interim approach. Can you update us on what we should expect this thing to actually look like?
好的，非常感谢您回答我的问题。首先，我想问一下关于您提到的降低成本模型的更多细节。我记得生产在上半年已经开始，但您说会在后期加速。上次分析师会议时，您提到过一些方面，比如实现三分之二到四分之三的削减，以及在电机中不使用稀土元素，可能还有其他的成本降低措施。您还介绍了一个“无箱”架构，我记得您说这不会成为这种中期方法的一部分。您能否更新一下，我们应该期待这个项目具体会是什么样子？
We want to get into the looks because it's a model. What? The count of the dancing cat that can sing a dance. Can't talk and sing it. That's a cool part. Yeah, I mean, the fundamentally the biggest obstacle remains that people just don't have. Some people don't. The desire to buy the cars very high. Just people don't have enough money in the bank account to buy it. And so that's literally that is the issue. Not not a lack of desire, but a lack of ability. So the more affordable we can make the car the better. I think it's just going to be it will be a very big deal when people can. Release their car to the fleet and have it earn money for them, which I'd like to say. I think I feel confident and saying that'll happen next year in the US at least in the US where. Where legally allowed. That's how it's going to go. That's what theclockwise, the traffic is as clean as.
我们想要探索这个模型的外观，因为它是个典范。怎么说呢？是关于一只能够跳舞和唱歌但不会说话的猫。这才是酷的部分。我是说，根本上最大的障碍在于，人们其实并不是没有购买的欲望，而是经济能力不足。很多人想买车的欲望很强烈，但他们的银行账户里钱不够，这就是问题所在。不是没有欲望，而是缺乏能力。因此，车子越能负担得起就越好。 我认为，一旦人们能够把自己的车释放到车队中去，并通过它来赚取收益，那将是非常重要的事情。我有信心地说，这将在明年在美国实现，至少在法律允许的地方，这就是事情的发展方向。这就像顺时针方向流动的交通那样干净明了。
And they'll make the affordability dramatically greater. Just like, you know, if you have an FD and you and you grin at your home when you're not there, right now, to guess, room or guest house, or something like that, you're the affordability feel home is much greater. Okay, trying another, another topic, then, can you know. We see all these wonderful developments at XAI, like GROC. And obviously, Tesla is trying to do quite a bit in AI. Elon, how do you manage the division of efforts and recruiting and talent and capital between these two that seem like there's a very high potential that they can in fact compete?
它们将大大增加负担能力。就像，如果你有一个固定存款（FD），而你不在家的时候，把房间或客房租出去，那么房子的负担能力会大大提高。好吧，换个话题。我们看到XAI的一些奇妙发展，比如GROC。另外，特斯拉显然也在努力发展人工智能。埃隆，你是如何在这两个似乎有很高竞争潜力的领域之间管理人力、资金和资源分配的？
Well, they are doing different things here. So, you know, the XAI is doing like, you know, terabyte scale models and multi-terabyte scale models. Tesla's 100 times smaller models. So, one's real world AI and one's kind of, I guess, a lot of potential super intelligence type thing. I mean, the really kind of, the genesis for XAI was that there were certain people who some people would not join Tesla, AI engineers, because they wanted to work on ASI, and they would join Tesla. And I was like, well, maybe they'll join a new company. And I think the Tesla problem is extremely important, but not everyone agrees with me on that. And so, rather than having them join, you know, opening AI or Google or whatever, some of the company, it's like, as well, having a creative company in that regard, which is XAI.
嗯，他们在这里做的是不同的事情。你知道，XAI正在处理像是兆字节规模和多兆字节规模的模型。特斯拉的模型则小100倍。因此，一个是针对现实世界的人工智能，而另一个则有点像是潜在的超级智能。我想，XAI的起源在于某些人，特别是一些AI工程师，他们不愿加入特斯拉，是因为他们想要研究人工超级智能（ASI），而这些人会加入特斯拉。我当时想，也许他们会加入一个新的公司。我认为特斯拉解决的问题极其重要，但不是所有人都同意这个观点。所以，与其让他们加入其他公司，比如OpenAI或谷歌等公司，还不如创办一个公司来满足这些需求，这就是XAI的由来。
So, if that's, you know, and people make a decision, do they want to work on the super intelligence data center or real world AI? They're both compelling problems, but some people would want to work on one, some one would work on the other. Great. And, unfortunately, that is all the time we have today. Thank you everyone so much for your questions, and you'll see next quarter. All right, hey everybody. Give me a one second here. Pause that music there. Tesla wrapping up. And we'll just go through some takeaways. Let me let me off the sound as working okay. Hopefully, looks like it should be. Make sure we got everything set up here.
所以，如果这是情况，人们就要做出决定，他们想要在超级智能数据中心工作，还是在现实世界的人工智能上工作？这两个都是很有吸引力的课题，但有些人会选择前者，有些人会选择后者。好的。很遗憾，今天我们的时间就到这里了。非常感谢大家提出的问题，我们下个季度再见。好了，大家好，请稍等一下。我先暂停一下音乐。特斯拉会议即将结束。我们来回顾一些要点。让我看看声音设置是否正常。希望一切都按计划进行，确保所有东西都已准备好。
Yeah, it looks like, I don't know, the stock, I think was maybe slightly up, maybe slightly down. Prior to the call, it looks like we're down about four and a half percent now. Not sure if there was anything super in particular that caused that. It seemed like kind of a steady drop throughout the call. I don't know if it was one comment in particular. It didn't want to feel like it was. Let me know. We'll look back through the notes as well. But I don't know. I didn't think it was a bad call by any means. I think there was a lot of exciting stuff in there.
是这样的，看起来股票可能是稍微上涨或者稍微下跌了。在电话会议之前，我们好像下跌了大约4.5%。不确定是否有特别的原因导致这种情况。在整个通话中，它似乎是一个比较平稳的下跌。我不确定是不是某个特别的评论导致了这个结果，但感觉不像。我会查阅一下会议记录。但我不认为这是一次糟糕的电话会议，我觉得里面有很多令人兴奋的内容。
I think anytime there's sort of management acknowledgement that there could be some rough quarters in the future that tends to make the market a little bit nervous. Usually company management for like broadly speaking here most companies is going to paint things as like optimistically as possible. And not to say that Tesla is not trying to do that or not even unintentionally doing that themselves. But I also think Tesla is probably some people will find this maybe ironic.
我认为，任何时候管理层承认未来可能会有一些困难的季度，都会让市场变得有些紧张。通常来说，大多数公司的管理层总是尽可能乐观地描述情况。这并不是说特斯拉没有在努力这样做，或者说即便是在无意中也没有这样做。但我也认为，可能有人会觉得这有些讽刺。
But I do think Tesla is more direct about some of the negatives. Maybe not in every single situation. But situations like this where Elon is specifically saying like, oh, there might be some tough quarters here in Q4, Q1 in particular. I mean, we were talking about that earlier today, right? It shouldn't be surprising to anyone. It's very forecastable, especially when you understand that EV credit is going away. So I don't mind the acknowledgement of that. I think it's, you know, totally again, something to be expected.
我确实认为特斯拉在某些负面情况上更直接。也许不是在每一种情况下，但在这种情况下，比如埃隆明确表示，可能会有一些困难的季度，特别是第四季度和第一季度。我是说，我们今天早些时候就在讨论这个，对任何人来说都不应该感到意外。这是很可预测的，尤其是当你了解电动车补贴即将取消的时候。所以我不介意承认这一点。我认为，这完全是可以预期的。
But again, as we talked about earlier today, what's most important is making sure that the business is at a level that it can continue to support the investments that Tesla is making and what they want their future to be. That is what shareholders are owning the shares for is that future potential of the business and people that are good with that direction. I think there's a lot in this call to be excited about.
正如我们今天早些时候讨论的，最重要的是确保公司的业务水平能够持续支持特斯拉所做的投资，以及他们对未来的愿景。这就是股东持有股份的原因所在——公司的未来潜力以及他们对这一方向的认可。我认为这次电话会传达了很多令人兴奋的内容。
And the less exciting parts of it, I think are things that are pretty well known or pretty well understood in terms of just some of the challenges that Tesla is working through as we're really in between growth phases and a transition phase right now, as Elon talked about. But on the sort of what Tesla is becoming side, I think there's a lot to be excited about.
我认为，相对不太激动人心的部分，是关于特斯拉目前面临的一些挑战，这些挑战在某种程度上是比较广为人知或者比较容易理解的。正如埃隆所说，我们现在正处于一个增长阶段和过渡阶段的交界处。不过，关于特斯拉的发展方向，我认为依然有很多令人期待的事情。
And I think Elon started off the call saying, you know, we're going to go back here. And just go through some of the notes here. Just making sure again the audio is good. Looks like it is. So yeah, expecting to greatly increase the sort of service area, I think it probably would surface on accident there, but service area to well and accessible competitors are doing.
我记得埃隆在电话会议开始时说，我们会回顾一下情况，并浏览一些笔记。同时，确保音频良好，看起来是没问题的。我们预计将大幅扩大服务区域，尽管可能有偶发因素，但总体上是要赶上和那些可接近的竞争对手。
We talked a little bit about that earlier today with Waymo quickly following up with Tesla's expansion. I talked a little bit about how maybe that's Waymo's expansion isn't quite as meaningful because they're also partnering with Uber. So they don't need to really make sure that that entire area is well covered because they have that fallback of Uber drivers to rely on versus Tesla.
今天早些时候，我们谈了一下Waymo迅速跟进特斯拉扩张的情况。我提到，或许Waymo的扩张并不是特别重要，因为他们还和Uber合作。因此，他们不需要确保整个区域都有很好的覆盖，因为他们可以依赖Uber的司机作为后备，而特斯拉就没有这样的支持。
It's just that's the Robotaxi service area. If you are in one part of it and you call for the vehicle, it needs to come get you. It doesn't have a choice to send a Uber driver. So as Tesla expands that service area, I think that is extremely meaningful. Maybe not in this first iteration, but certainly I think at some point they mentioned here something to the degree of maybe like 10 times that service area is, I think that was more of like their ultimate goal.
这只是说这是Robotaxi（机器人出租车）的服务区域。如果你在这个区域的某个地方叫车，车辆就必须来接你。它不能选择派一个Uber司机来。因此，随着特斯拉扩大这个服务区域，我认为这非常有意义。可能这在第一次实施时不那么明显，但我相信在某个时候，他们提到过目标是将服务区域扩大到现在的10倍。我觉得这更像是他们的最终目标。
But just the fact that they anticipate this happening very quickly is important. I think Elon said in here maybe even the next week or certainly in the next couple of weeks, see if I can find that note, that they would be expanding that service area in Austin. So I think that's encouraging. I think the portion of the discussion around the sort of focus of FSD really being on that service area in Austin and this Robotaxi rollout and things like that. I think Tesla seems very happy with that performance. And I think as they've said previously, the things that are driving that performance are not really making their way into the production software yet that people are able to use version 13.12.9. I think we're on right now. But once these things do make it into those vehicles, it should be hopefully quite another step forward like we have seen really all of the last major releases from Tesla.
但仅仅是他们预期这会非常快地发生这一点就很重要。我记得埃隆可能在这里提到过，或许就在下周，或者肯定是在接下来的几周内，他们将在奥斯汀扩展服务区域。我觉得这很令人振奋。讨论的一部分是关于FSD（完全自动驾驶）的重点真的就在于奥斯汀的服务区域和自动驾驶出租车的推出等。我认为特斯拉对这个表现感到非常满意。而且我觉得他们之前曾说，那些推动性能提升的因素还没有真正进入生产软件，目前大家用的是版本13.12.9。但一旦这些改进进入到那些车辆中，希望能像我们见证的特斯拉以往所有主要版本发布那样，是一个相当大的进步。
I think version 11 to version 12 was a huge step change. I think version 12 to version 13 was a huge step change. And now we've been on version 13 for a long time and there's a good reason to believe even if you set aside Robotaxi and what Tesla has accomplished there, I think there's good reason to believe with the amount of time that Tesla has had and the amount of resources that Tesla has put forth here. I think there's good reason to believe that we'll see another major step forward with FSD with whatever the next release is. And it's already so good that it's I mean Elon was saying months ago and people would kind of like make fun of him for saying that's that it's like hard to tell which version is better because the interventions are becoming so rare.
我认为从版本11升级到版本12是一个巨大飞跃，而从版本12升级到版本13也是如此。现在我们已经在版本13上待了很长一段时间，就算不考虑特斯拉在Robotaxi领域的成就，我认为仍有充分理由相信，由于特斯拉投入的时间和资源，在下一次发布的FSD版本中，我们将看到另一个重大进展。FSD已经非常出色，以至于几个月前，埃隆·马斯克就曾表示，很难分辨哪个版本更好，因为系统需要人工干预的情况越来越少，人们也因此常常开他玩笑。
That is my lived experience with my vehicle. So when we start to talk about even taking steps forward from there, it's getting to the point where it's almost going to be difficult for customers to notice because it is so good. But Tesla at a high level has very good awareness of what that is going to look like when it's something that is deployed in vehicles that are driving a billion miles a quarter. Then you get very good data showing that improvement and probably most importantly, getting to that point where all right, these interventions are becoming so rare that we're comfortable with both you know, a Robotaxi initial launch here and then expanding that in other areas and then eventually, you know, just basically rolling it out to the entire fleet anywhere that regulators will allow it.
这是我对我的交通工具的亲身体验。因此，当我们开始讨论更进一步的改进时，这种改进已经到了让客户几乎察觉不到的地步，因为产品已经非常出色。但特斯拉在这方面有着很高的认识，特别是在这种功能应用到每季度行驶十亿英里的车辆上时。然后你会得到非常有力的数据展示这种改进的效果，最重要的可能是，我们达到这样一个阶段，操作介入变得非常罕见，以至于我们对Robotaxi（机器人出租车）的首次推出感到放心，并在其他地区推广，最终基本上在所有允许的地区向整个车队推出。
And we're on that path, right? And there's a lot of positive signs pointing towards that path continuing. So that's sort of the biggest thing that I'm looking for in this call. That's the future of Tesla. And I think there was many positives about that future that were covered on the call. Specifically here, this note that I've got up the 10 times parameter count, I think, is important. Tesla with the version 13 software, they put that in an upcoming release, they would have four times the parameter count. So it sounds like not only are they confident in that, but they're confident that they can even continue to take that another step further, getting up to 10 times the parameter count with the current hardware.
我们正在那条道路上，对吧？而且有很多积极的迹象显示我们会继续走这条路。因此，这是我在这次电话会议中最关注的事情。这代表了特斯拉的未来。我认为，在电话会议中，有很多关于这个未来的积极面被讨论到。具体来说，我手头的这个笔记提到的十倍参数数量非常重要。在即将发布的第13版软件中，特斯拉将参数数量提升到四倍。这说明他们不仅对这个进展有信心，还相信他们能够更进一步，在现有硬件的基础上将参数数量提升到十倍。
And then that's just the current hardware pretty quickly. We're going to be moving into AI five hardware, which has, I don't know, since I've been driving version 13, it's like, yep, this is amazing. I don't see any reason why another hardware iteration, like couldn't pretty easily get this done with just the rate of progress that we've seen from Tesla and how much progress hardware four unlocked. And I think we're still in not maybe the early stages of hardware four, but certainly not at the end point of progress for hardware four either. So yeah, I think the next two years are very exciting in terms of just what Tesla is able to do with autonomy.
这只是目前的硬件情况，发展速度相当快。我们很快就要进入AI五代硬件时代了。我在使用第13版的时候就觉得，非常棒。我没有看到任何理由为什么不能在另一次硬件迭代中完成这一任务，特别是考虑到我们看到特斯拉的进步速度，以及硬件四代带来的巨大进展。而且，我认为我们可能还处于硬件四代发展的初期阶段，但肯定还没有到达终点。所以，我觉得接下来的两年对于特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的进展是非常令人期待的。
I think the last year has been very exciting with what Tesla's been able to do with autonomy. I think that's the reason the stock is still around a trillion dollar market cap is because we have seen that progress, even though, you know, it's been slow, it's been many years coming, it is happening and it is going to continue happening and probably in hindsight, we'll seem like it happened pretty quickly here. That's sort of my expectation over the next 12 to 18 months. So from that perspective, which again, I think that's like, you know, Tesla shareholder perspective, maybe not traders, which back in influence the day-to-day movement a lot, but I think for long term Tesla investors, there's a lot to be looking forward to and a lot of real tangible progress being made on those really important parts of the future of the business.
我认为，去年特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的进展非常令人兴奋。我想这就是为什么特斯拉的市值仍然在万亿美元左右的原因。虽然这个过程缓慢，花了很多年，但确实在发生，并将继续发生。事后回看，可能会觉得这一切发生得很快。这是我对未来12到18个月的预期。从这个角度来看，我认为这更像是特斯拉长期投资者的观点，也许不太像短期交易者，因为他们更关注每日的市场波动。但对于长期投资者来说，特斯拉在业务未来一些非常重要的领域上取得了很多实质性的进展，还有很多值得期待的东西。
But yeah, there might be a rough Q4 when that EV tech started goes away and hopefully that'll be stemmed a little bit by the launch of this more affordable model, which it sounds like Elon said looks like the Model Y, which is probably a good thing to just sort of like loosely let out there so people can align their expectations accordingly. I don't know, maybe that's part of the reaction here, but be a little bit surprised by that. But hopefully that is, and I think the timing of that will be well, well timed with the EV tech started going away. Hopefully that can sort of fill that gap, but it's going to put ASP pressure on, especially if it is something that is pretty similar to the Model Y. That's going to put pressure on actual Model Y sales, probably pretty significantly. So let's see.
是的，当当前的电动车技术逐渐消退时，第四季度可能会比较艰难。但希望通过推出这款更实惠的新车型能稍微缓解这个情况。据说埃隆提到，这款新车的外观类似于Model Y。这种信息的释放可能有助于让人们调整他们的期望。我不太确定这是否引起了一些反响，但可能会感到有点意外。不过，我希望这款车的推出能够很好地与现有电动车技术的消退时机相吻合，希望能填补这个空缺。但是，这也会对平均销售价格（ASP）产生压力，特别是如果新车型与Model Y非常相似的话。这可能会对现有Model Y的销量产生相当大的影响。让我们拭目以待。
FSD being a huge selling point. These comments, I don't know that I fully agreed with or understood. Yes, I do think FSD is a huge selling point. It would be difficult for me to buy a non-Test of the ECO because I would miss FSD extremely significantly. So for me, yes, it's a huge selling point, but also at the same time, like the take rate is low. So people are obviously buying Teslas for many other reasons. And I think there's tons of good reasons there as well. So they're acknowledging that it's a huge selling point. They're acknowledging that not a lot of people fully understand it. It's like, man, let's just put these things together, right? And maybe do some advertising. I know Teslas, like hydrophobic to advertising, replace hydro with whatever advertising would be in that vernacular, but it just seems like a pretty obvious solution at least to try. At least to try.
FSD（全自动驾驶）是一个很大的卖点。对于这些评论，我不太确定自己是否完全同意或理解。是的，我确实认为FSD是一个很大的卖点。对我来说，如果不买装备FSD的特斯拉，我会非常想念它。因此，对我来说，这确实是一个重要的卖点，但同时，FSD的接受率较低。所以，很明显，人们购买特斯拉的原因有很多其他方面，我认为这些也是很好的理由。他们承认这是一个重要的卖点，也承认并不是所有人都完全理解它。感觉就像，把这些东西结合在一起，也许可以试试做一些广告宣传。我知道特斯拉不喜欢打广告，把这个“恐惧症”换成广告用语，但这似乎是一个显而易见的解决方案，至少值得一试。
What's the O Super Bowl add on showing FSD maybe? The risk is very low. It's like $5 million or something like that. I don't know. It's inconsequential to the scale of Teslas business to try advertising in a more significant way. And I wish that they would just sort of like get over that hump. I mean, Starlink advertises. So maybe not in the most traditional ways. And Teslas done like a little bit of it, but I would like to just see them try something more aggressive just to see what happens. I understand the hesitancy. It's sort of a slippery slope to hop on, but this seems like a perfect situation where hey, there's low awareness and we have resources to be able to raise that awareness. Maybe we couple those things. All right.
奥尔超级碗广告会展示FSD吗？风险其实很低，大概就500万美元左右。我觉得对于特斯拉的业务规模来说，这笔投入几乎可以忽略不计，以更有意义的方式尝试广告。而且我希望他们能够克服这道障碍。我意思是，Starlink也在打广告，尽管可能不是最传统的那种方式。特斯拉以前也做过一些广告，但我希望看到他们尝试更有力度的广告策略，看看会有什么效果。我能理解他们的犹豫，因为这条路可能很难回头，但这似乎是个完美的机会，即我们面临知名度低的问题，又有资源去提升这种知名度，也许我们可以结合这两方面。
So anyway, I've talked about that many times. It's, that's fine. All right. I feel like I'm going to have to track on the notes here, but let's see. Yeah. So well and excessive what competitors are doing in terms of the service area, hopefully, in a week or so. I think Ashok said a couple of weeks. So, you know, sometime this quarter, we should see another expansion again from Tesla. I hope that will continue to, I wish someone would ask about the safety rider specifically. The problem is that people ask like five questions. Whenever you ask multiple questions, Tesla doesn't answer them all. Like they're they're going to pick one either the one that they want to answer, the one that they mind answering the least, or just the last one in the sequence. That's what's going to get answered.
好的，总之，我已经多次谈论过这个问题。这没问题。好的，我觉得我需要在笔记上做一些记录，让我看看。是的。因此，希望在一周左右的时间内，能够看到竞争对手在服务领域方面的进展。我想阿肖克提到过可能需要几个星期。所以，在这个季度的某个时候，我们应该会再次看到特斯拉的扩展。我希望这种趋势能继续下去。我希望有人能具体问一下关于安全驾驶员的问题。问题是大家总是喜欢一次提好几个问题，而特斯拉通常不会全部回答。他们会选择一个来回答，可能是他们愿意回答的，或者是他们最不介意回答的，或者就干脆回答最后一个问题。
So people really just need to learn to ask one very specific question that they want the answer to. Like, can you tell us when the safety ride, like when the safety rider is going to be removed? Just do that and then ask your follow up. I wish that that would have been the case, but I don't think that we have that answer yet. Tesla may not have that answer yet either. So it's a little bit tongue in cheek, but I'm sure that they want to remove it as soon as they can. But it's more of a, like does does that actual decision really unlock anything for Tesla? Not really. It's more of a sign, an external sign that Tesla has achieved certain milestones. So it, you know, it'll happen when it happens. And I don't know that Tesla knows exactly when that will be at this moment.
人们真的需要学会提出他们想知道答案的一个非常具体的问题。比如，你能告诉我们，安全驾驶员什么时候会被移除吗？只需这样做，然后再问你的后续问题。我希望情况是这样的，但我认为我们现在还没有答案。特斯拉可能也没有确切的答案。因此，这有点幽默，但我相信他们希望能够尽快移除安全驾驶员。然而，实际上，这个决定并不会为特斯拉真正解锁什么。这更像是一个外部信号，表明特斯拉已经达到了某些里程碑。所以，它会在合适的时候发生。目前，我不确定特斯拉是否确切知道何时会发生这一变化。
Good to see that they are having discussions. It sounds like with the Bay Area, Nevada, with Florida, with Arizona, sounds like other places as well. And I think Elon said that they expect to be able to then launch robots Axi before the end of the year, which is, you know, we're like five or six months now. That's not a lot of time to be potentially launching in whatever, maybe five or six different jurisdictions. So I think that's also extremely exciting going back to just like things that are positive from from the earnings call. I definitely count that in there. I think this is actually more optimistic than what we heard earlier this year, which is a pretty notable change. I think Tesla was originally indicating really just kind of Austin and Bay Area. And then like maybe some other locations, it sounds like now we're getting more specifics in terms of those.
很高兴看到他们正在进行讨论。听起来不仅有旧金山湾区，还有内华达州、佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州，以及其他地方。埃隆·马斯克说他们预计可以在年底前推出 Axi 机器人，我们现在距离年底只有五六个月时间。要在可能五六个不同的司法管辖区推出，这样的时间并不多。所以，我认为这从财报电话会议中看是非常令人兴奋的积极因素。我觉得这比我们今年早些时候听到的消息更加乐观，这是一个相当显著的变化。特斯拉最初似乎只提到奥斯汀和湾区，现在听起来我们获得了更多关于其他地点的具体信息。
And seemingly some more optimism about about the timeline, which is both of those things are very encouraging as you get closer to that actual timeline coming to to be current. So yeah, I think that's exciting. Probably half the US population by the end of the year. Like that's not, I don't think that's the expectation. I don't think really anyone even, I mean, the most bullish people probably expect like a hundred percent worldwide coverage by the end of the year. But in terms of just like the spectrum of participants, I don't think there's there's many people that I don't. Tesla sets lofty goals. So this will probably happen later than what they are targeting. But even then I don't think that people quite appreciate or realize or recognize that sort of scale.
翻译成中文可以这样表达：
似乎对于时间表有更多的乐观情绪，这两点都非常鼓舞人心，尤其是当你越来越接近那个实际的时间节点时。所以，我觉得这很令人兴奋。可能到年底美国一半的人口会达到目标。不过，我认为这并不是预期，也没有人，包括最乐观的人，可能会期待在年底实现全球覆盖。但在参与者的范围内，我认为没有多少人有这样的期望。特斯拉设定了宏伟的目标，所以这可能会比他们计划的时间晚一点实现。但即便如此，我觉得人们没有真正意识到或认同那样的规模。
And when Tesla is really targeting to be able to do that, I think it's easy to look at Austin and right now, just kind of write it off of like, yeah, there's a safety rider. There's limited like the public can't access it. There's a smaller, you know, small service area relative to half the world's half the US population. It's easy to diminish right now. But the ability to diminish it will be lost extremely quickly. If Tesla scales anywhere close to what they are targeting to what they expect, the ability to criticize it very, very, very quickly goes away. So that's we're sort of right on the precipice of that of whether that will happen or whether, you know, the doubters will will be right.
当特斯拉真正瞄准实现这一目标时，我认为很容易就会有人把它在奥斯汀的情况轻易地忽视掉。现在可以说，那里有安全驾驶员限制，公众无法访问，而且服务范围相对于美国一半的人口来说非常有限。目前很容易因此而看轻它。但是，如果特斯拉实现了他们的目标并接近他们的预期，那么对于它的批评能力将会迅速消失。因此，我们现在正处于一个关键时刻，即事情究竟会不会发生，或者怀疑者是否会被证明是正确的。
I think Elon sort of tends to live a little bit in the future. He's saying that the doubters just like have egg on their face. I don't think they feel that way necessarily yet. But I think if Tesla does what they are saying they're going to do here, then it's almost in arguable that that is sort of the outcome that we will be in shortly. And I think that's where Elon is sort of like already at, which again goes back to like his comments. Tesla sort of already, Tesla sort of always three to six months ahead, just because they can see what's actually going on. They can see the data.
我认为埃隆有点像生活在未来的人。他说那些怀疑者最终会尴尬不已。我觉得现在他们可能还没有这种感觉。不过，如果特斯拉真的实现他们所承诺的，那么最终结果几乎是无可争议的。我认为这是埃隆目前已经看到了的未来，这也可以解释他的一些言论。特斯拉总是比别人早三到六个月，因为他们能够看到实际正在发生的事情，他们有数据支撑。
They can see the simulations of the future versions of the software. And they've got that insight. Whereas we're just looking at like, you know, oh, it's it's in Austin. We're looking at like three to six month old software. That's that's probably what's actually in production, even in Austin right now. So I'm just trying to remind people to be mindful of that. And again, I think that's why to me, like this call, I think felt pretty positive is because I think Tesla is feeling very positive about where those developments are at.
他们能够看到软件未来版本的模拟，并且因此获得了洞察力。而我们所看到的，只是比如说在奥斯汀的三到六个月前的软件，这可能就是现在在奥斯汀实际使用的版本。所以我只是想提醒大家注意这一点。此外，我认为此次会议让我感到非常积极的原因之一是，因为我认为特斯拉对这些开发的进展感到非常乐观。
Yeah, model-wide stuff. FSD Europe, I really hope figures that out. West driver monitoring would be very nice. It is. I feel like they improved it. And then it just, I don't know if they got in trouble or whatever, but it seems to be back to being harsh again. Just looking through the notes. Tesla diner. 10 times the perimeter counts. We talked about that. Energy, a lot of bullish commentary there. It was nice to hear some of their, put that some of that in context with the one big beautiful bill and tariffs and things like that.
好的，涉及到整个模型的事情。关于欧洲的完全自动驾驶，我真的希望他们能够搞定。西部驾驶员监控将会非常不错。我感觉他们有所改进。但后来，我不知道他们是不是遇到了什么问题，反正现在看起来又变得严格了。浏览了一下备注。特斯拉餐厅。周边统计数据增加了十倍。我们讨论过这个。能源方面，有很多积极的评论。很高兴听到他们把一些东西和一项重大法案、关税等联系在一起进行了解释。
I think they're expecting an impact, but it sounds like maybe a little bit smaller than what people might have been fearing. I think that's good. A lot of discussion on Optimus. So I'll look forward to seeing that version three. Obviously, we've seen the version three hands or maybe version like 2.5. We'll see if the version three ones are another iteration, but definitely looking forward to that. I like how you want to put this in context in terms of just like the differences in AI. It's AI's, I don't know if it's like a catch all right now, but it's a broad industry. There's a lot of elements to it.
我认为他们预期会有影响，但听起来可能比人们担心的要小一些。我觉得这很好。关于Optimus有很多讨论，所以我很期待看到第三版。显然，我们已经见过第三版的手部，或者可能称作2.5版。我们拭目以待，看看第三版是否会有新的迭代，但我确实很期待。我喜欢你想要把这放在AI的背景下讨论，就像AI的差异一样。我不知道AI现在是否已经成为一个万能词汇，但这是一个涵盖广泛的行业，其中有很多不同的元素。
And I think it's difficult to find an argument against what you want to say here about Tesla being the leader in intelligence density, which is incredibly important when it comes to real world AI. You can't take Colossus, you know, XAI's massive training data center. You can't take that and move it around. So it's just a very different problem. And obviously they work together in many ways, but there are certainly differences here too. Optimus production stuff. Q2 was an interesting quarter. So these are kind of CFO comments.
我认为，很难反驳你所说的特斯拉在智能密度方面是领导者的观点，这在现实世界的人工智能中非常重要。像XAI的大型训练数据中心那样的设施，无法移动。所以这是一个完全不同的问题。显然，他们在很多方面是协作的，但这里也有一些明显的不同。Optimus生产方面的事情。第二季度是很有趣的一个季度。这些是类似首席财务官的评论。
So I'm going to like a 25% increase in FSD take rate since version 12. I don't know if that's probably a little bit lower than I would have expected just because it has gotten so much better. But I do think that they were right to point out that people are not aware of how much better it is, whether within the Tesla customer set or certainly outside of the Tesla customer set. I think that awareness is low. So I think that's why the take rate. Well, it is nice to see that up up tick for sure.
自从第12版以来，我注意到全自动驾驶（FSD）的采纳率增加了大约25%。虽然这样的增幅可能比我预期的要低一点，因为软件确实进步了很多。但我确实认为，他们指出的问题是对的：无论是在特斯拉已有客户中，还是在特斯拉客户群体之外，人们并没有意识到它的提升究竟有多大，我认为对此的认知度很低。因此，这可能就是采纳率增长不如预期的原因。不过，看到采纳率有上升当然还是好的。
And I also think they're talking about percent on percent here. So it's like if it's 4% and it goes to 5%, that's like a 25% increase. I don't know. That's that's my understanding of how they're talking about it. I'd probably have to go back and listen, but I don't think it's going from like 10% to 35%, which would also be a 25% increase, but it's just how you're talking about how you're framing it. So I wish they would have been a little bit more clear on that, but my interpretation was more the former, the smaller increase.
我觉得他们在谈论的是百分比基础上的增幅。比如说，如果从4%增加到5%，那就是增加了25%。我不太确定，但这是我对他们说法的理解。我可能需要重新去听一下，不过我不认为是从10%增加到35%这种幅度，这虽然也是25%的增加，但关键在于你如何描述和看待这个增幅。我希望他们能更清楚地表达我的意思，但我的理解是前者，即较小的增幅。
Auto revenue, we talked a little bit about that earlier today. It sounded like it was mainly just ASP driven, sorry, ASP was driven by mix, mostly with new model Y. Cost of tariffs, I didn't quite fully catch. Sometimes it's a little bit difficult to hear exactly what they're saying. I do my best, but I didn't quite catch the cost of the tariffs. Stuff there, something around 300 million was mentioned. Sounded like that's going to affect future quarters, possibly affected this quarter as well. But my need to go back to listen to that.
汽车收入，今天早些时候我们稍微谈了一下。听起来主要是受平均售价（ASP）驱动的，对不起，准确地说，ASP主要是因为产品组合的变化，尤其是新的Model Y。关于关税成本，我没完全听清楚。有时候确实不太容易听清楚他们具体在说什么。我尽量去理解，但关税成本的具体数字没有完全听清。听说提到了大约3亿美元。这可能会影响未来几个季度，或者也可能已经影响了这个季度。我可能需要回去再听一下。
We may get it probably not on the tariffs in the 10Q, but 10Q also usually gives some context on how the numbers have been affected at least. Good points on energy from Elon. I think things that people here probably understand, just the energy demand is kind of insatiable and how batteries can very quickly help with that. I think the quickness part is important if you fault anything with XAI, like you understand how much of a challenge power is and energy is and batteries are something that can aid with those challenges and be put into production, I guess, or become part of a project very quickly.
我们可能不会在10Q中看到有关关税的信息，但10Q通常会提供一些背景，至少可以让我们了解数字是如何受到影响的。Elon关于能源的问题提得很好。我觉得这里的人们可能都明白，能源的需求几乎是无止境的，而电池可以很快帮助解决这个问题。我认为速度这个方面很重要，如果你对XAI有什么疑问，比如你了解电力和能源有多大的挑战，而电池可以帮助应对这些挑战，并且可以很快投入生产或成为项目的一部分。
R&D continued to grow. CapEx 9 billion this year. All things I'm in support of. I think there's a lot of exciting things for Tesla to be investing in that I think that they are investing in. Yeah, so here's that 10X comments. We'll probably more than 10X the area, the service area at Austin. Next will be Bay Area. Sounded like they'll launch the Robotaxi system with the driver first in the Bay Area, which I think that's what Waymo did too. People laughed at like, oh, Tesla's just following the exact same thing as Waymo.
研发继续增长。今年的资本支出为90亿美元，这些都是我支持的。我认为有许多令人兴奋的项目值得特斯拉投资，我认为他们确实在投资这些项目。接下来是关于增长的评论。我们可能会将奥斯汀的服务区域扩大超过10倍。下一个将是湾区。听起来他们会在湾区首先推出带司机的自动驾驶出租车系统，我想Waymo当初也是这么做的。有人嘲笑说，特斯拉就是在跟随Waymo的步伐。
First of all, no, just because there are some similarities, it's not exactly the same. But secondly, even if they were following the exact same process, they're doing it with hardware that is very different. So even that criticism is sort of a faulty criticism. It's like, oh, you're doing the exact same thing five times cheaper, that's lame. But obviously that's extremely impressive. So that criticism always kind of cracks me up. Timeline for FSD unsupervised. It's just like not what they're working on. I mean, it is, but it's obviously the focus has been Robotaxi in Austin.
首先，不，尽管有一些相似之处，但这并不完全相同。但其次，即便他们确实在采用完全相同的过程，他们使用的硬件却非常不同。所以即便那种批评也是有些站不住脚的。有点像，“哦，你们用五分之一的成本做出完全相同的事情，真没劲。” 但显然这是非常令人钦佩的。因此，那种批评总是让我觉得有些好笑。关于完全无人监督的FSD（全自动驾驶）的时间表，这根本不是他们目前的重点项目。我是指，这确实是一个项目，但显然他们目前的重心一直在奥斯汀的自动驾驶出租车上。
As that gets working to a degree that Tesla's happy with expanding, then they can start expanding that focus to customer vehicles and things like that. More Optimus stuff. I think things that Elon has talked about before. Nothing too crazy new there. Shareholder meeting stuff. We'll see Optimus at the Shareholder meeting. Tesla will talk about the progress there. Sounds like Elon's confident that there will be some sort of compensation vote or something at that meeting.
一旦特斯拉对某个项目的进展感到满意，他们就可以开始将注意力扩展到客户车辆和其他领域。更多关于Optimus的内容，这些都是Elon之前提到过的，没有什么特别新的。股东大会上我们会看到Optimus。特斯拉将在会上谈论这方面的进展。听起来Elon对在会议上进行某种补偿投票或类似事项充满信心。
Elon may have that master plan that he talked about, which obviously will include Optimus. I would expect that either before the meeting or at the meeting. So I think that would be what master plan five maybe four. So we'll look forward to that. Fundamental transition of the company. Dojo two and dojo three. Talkie. Sorry, I just got an alert. AI six with the sort of next chip from AI five that continued continued iteration.
埃隆可能会有他之前提到的那个总体规划，其中显然会包括Optimus。我预计这计划会在会议前或者会议上提出。所以我想这可能是总体规划的第五版，也可能是第四版。我们对此非常期待。这将是公司的一次根本性转型。Dojo二代和三代。抱歉，我刚收到一个提醒。AI六代将是AI五代芯片的下一步迭代更新。
Elon sees that converging with dojo two. I know Tesla is already used hardware four either in simulation or inference. Maybe in training I would have to look back on that. But obviously if they're using AI four chips or hardware four chips that go in vehicles on sort of like the server level or the remote level, they're realizing the value of those chips extends beyond just being specifically in the vehicle. So it's something that Elon talked a little bit about before.
埃隆看到这个趋势与Dojo二代的结合。我知道特斯拉已经在模拟或推断中使用硬件四代，也许在培训中也是如此，我需要再查一下。但显然，如果他们在车辆中使用AI四代芯片或硬件四代芯片，不论是在服务器层面还是远程层面，他们意识到这些芯片的价值不仅仅局限于车辆内部。这是埃隆之前谈到的一点。
Like can you leverage those the compute capacity that is just going to be sitting idle in these vehicles and probably the more convergence that there is between these designs the better you could leverage that. So I don't know. It's just it's sort of a fascinating little intersection that Elon is particularly well suited to navigate because of his experience both with Tesla, which is already covering a broad swath of AI, but then also obviously the history with open AI.
你能够利用那些将闲置的车辆计算能力吗？可能设计之间的融合越多，你就越能有效地利用它们。我不太确定。但这确实是一个引人入胜的小交叉点，Elon特别适合驾驭这一点，因为他在这方面有着独特的经验。他在特斯拉的经验涉及广泛的人工智能领域，而且他还有与OpenAI的历史背景。
And now of course with the X AI, Elon pretty uniquely positioned for making decisions like that. And how to best dial in those levers to optimize in those in those areas. So I'm looking forward to hearing more about that. I think I think Adam Jonas asked about the AI day. That I mean that's a good question in that context of we're probably not quite there yet for them to be able to talk about that stuff. But it is something that we'd love to hear more from Tesla about. Because it's a really exciting time in in terms of development in those areas.
当然，如今随着X AI的发展，埃隆·马斯克在做出此类决策方面有着独特的优势。如何最好地调整这些杠杆，以在这些领域实现优化，这是很值得期待的。我期待听到更多相关的信息。我认为亚当·乔纳斯问到了关于 AI 日的话题。在这个背景下，这是个好问题，因为特斯拉可能还没有完全准备好去谈论这些内容。但我们非常希望从特斯拉那里听到更多，因为在这些领域的发展方面，现在是一个非常令人兴奋的时期。
All right. Energy stuff. We know about the LFP. We know about the third megafactory. 30 cents per mile guessing for cyber cab Tesla. I think it's talked about that before. Maybe 50 cents per mile for other vehicles. So compensation stuff, optimist stuff. Confident AFI 5 triple BF profound profound game changer. I think that's most of it. Yeah, I think we've touched on most of it. So yeah, I guess just taking kind of a more high level view on today. I think it was sort of like excitingly unexciting.
好的，关于能源的事情。我们知道LFP电池，也知道第三个超级工厂。对于特斯拉的网络出租车，预计每英里花费30美分。之前好像有讨论过这个，其他车辆可能每英里50美分。那么关于赔偿的事情，还有乐观的事情。对AFI 5三重BF充满信心，这是个深刻的改变游戏规则的因素。我想这些就是主要内容了。是的，我想我们涵盖了大部分内容。所以，是的，从更高的角度来看今天的事情，我觉得算是令人兴奋的不激动。
Like I don't think that there were, I don't think that there were many things here that were surprising in a negative way. And I think the positives that we heard are thesis reinforcing. And what I mean by that is that at least my reason for holding Tesla is that autonomous robotics future first through EVs. And then obviously more recently with humanoid robots. And within that framework or within that thesis, I think Tesla is executing.
我认为这里没有很多令人负面惊讶的事情。而我们听到的正面消息则强化了我们的投资理念。我的意思是，我持有特斯拉股票的原因，至少主要是因为我相信未来的自动化机器人时代，首先从电动汽车开始，然后最近则是人形机器人的发展。在这个框架或理念下，我认为特斯拉正在很好地执行其计划。
And I think that they're giving a lot of reasons to be optimistic. I think that they're optimistic in a way that is more than just like putting on errors or trying to be optimistic for the sake of optimism. I think that they really are. And I think that they have good reason to be. So that was sort of what I was looking for coming in here of just, you know, is robots actually on track? Is it going to continue to expand? Yes, yes. Sounds like that's going to happen as soon as the next couple of weeks with potentially a much larger service area.
我认为他们给了我们许多理由去乐观。我觉得他们的乐观并不是装出来的或只是为了乐观而乐观，而是真心实意的。我认为他们确实有充分的理由如此。所以，当我来到这里时，我想了解的是，机器人项目是否真的走在正轨上？这个项目会继续扩大吗？是的，是的。听起来这个发展可能最快将在接下来的几周内实现，并且服务范围可能会大大扩大。
I don't think Waymo is then going to be able to one up that, you know, the following week after that. And this little battle that we've got going on with Waymo and with Tesla and scale. Obviously Tesla is taking the later start here in terms of scale, but the real question is what's the rate of progress from there? Elon has said hyper exponential. Obviously, Elon has been wrong on timing before in these subjects. But if that happens, I think it doesn't take much of that happening for people to very quickly realize that this is like kind of game over situation.
我认为Waymo接下来的一周不太可能在这个方面超过我们。我们目前在Waymo和特斯拉之间展开了一场小规模的竞争。显然，在规模上，特斯拉起步较晚，但真正的问题是他们从这时候开始的进展速度如何。埃隆也曾提到过要实现超指数级增长。尽管在这些问题上，埃隆之前的时间预测经常不准确，但如果真的实现了这样的增长，我认为人们很快就会意识到这几乎是游戏的终结。
So we may not be far away from a realization like that. Maybe we are. It really just depends how things continue. But that's sort of what I'm watching for at the moment. And I think everything that they said was either in line or above my expectations in terms of how that progresses from here. So excitingly on exciting. And we'll see. We'll see how things go.
所以，我们可能离那样的实现不远了，也可能还很远。这实际上取决于事情的发展。不过目前这正是我在关注的方向。我觉得他们所说的内容都符合或超出了我的预期，这让人感到非常兴奋。我们拭目以待，看看事情如何发展。
Like if we don't get another expansion in two weeks and we don't get another expansion in four weeks, then it starts to look disappointing. But if those things happen, then I think the reason for excitement remains and and we'll see. And then just in terms of like more than negative stuff, it's, I don't know, none of that stuff is was either unexpected, not to say that it like doesn't matter. But certainly, I don't I don't think that there was anything in here that was like an unexpected negative.
如果我们在两周内没有看到新的扩展，再过四周也没有，那么就开始令人失望了。但是如果这些事情发生了，我认为兴奋的理由仍然存在，我们拭目以待。至于一些消极的东西，我觉得没有什么是不意料之外的，并不是说这些事情不重要，但我确实认为其中没有什么是意外的负面因素。
Like we know about tariffs. We know about the one big beautiful bill. We know about these things. Obviously, there's going to be an impact. Tesla's going to have to work through those impacts. And that's going to maybe put some pressure on the business at certain times. But like the EV credit going away isn't very relevant for Tesla's future of being an autonomous, you know, rideshare provider.
就像我们了解关税一样，我们也了解那项重要的法案。我们知道这些事情。显然，这些都会产生影响。特斯拉将不得不应对这些影响，这可能会在某些时候对业务造成一些压力。但就像电动车税收抵免的取消对特斯拉作为未来自动驾驶共享出行服务提供商的发展并不是特别重要一样。
Like it's just those aren't even related at all. So it's maybe not unimportant isn't the right word, but it's not the most important thing. All right, just going to take a quick look. Any questions in here? I do see I did see a couple of super jets in here. So I wanted to thank you Greg. That was a massive one. I appreciate that. It means a lot that, you know, you guys find this helpful, find my commentary.
这句话的大意是：就像这些根本没有关联。所以，也许不能说完全不重要，但也不是最重要的事。好的，我要快速浏览一下。有任何问题吗？我看到这里有几条超级留言。我想特别感谢Greg，这是一笔很大的支持。我非常感激，你们觉得这有帮助，也欣赏我的评论。
Something worth listening to. Even if it's not the smoothest presentation all the time, but I do really appreciate it. It does mean a lot. ESR, thank you for that. So a question here. Let's see. So does a sea does having a CEO that knowingly helped elect people involved with Epstein help or hurt the stock? I'm not sure curious about your analysis. So I assume this is tongue in cheek. You probably didn't expect me to take this take this question. But hey, I'll talk about it.
值得一听。虽然这个演讲有时可能不是最流畅，但我真的很感激它。对我来说意义重大。ESR，谢谢你。那么这里有一个问题。让我们看看。是否有一个明知帮助推选与爱泼斯坦有关的人担任CEO，会对公司股票有利还是有损？我不确定，想听听你的分析。我猜你是在开玩笑，你可能没想到我会认真回答这个问题。不过，嘿，我会聊聊这个的。
So I think I mean, there was literally a report today that this is very political and probably not something I should wait into. But there was a report today that I think that the DOJ said that they informed Trump in May that was part of the Epstein files. And I think that was around the time where Elon said this. So the framing of your question wouldn't actually match with that report. Now people are going to believe all sorts of different things on this, depending on your political lens. That's fine. I'm not really here to comment on that. So everyone's free to make their own opinions like no one has to be a Tesla shareholder. It's done well historically. So if you don't want to be a Tesla shareholder, you certainly don't have to be.
我想说的是，今天确实有一份报告，这件事非常政治化，我可能不应该深入讨论。不过，根据今天的报告，美国司法部（DOJ）在五月通知特朗普，他与爱泼斯坦的档案有关联。我认为这大概是在埃隆提到此事的时间点。这样看来，你的问题可能与那份报告不符。现在，人们在这件事上会根据自己的政治立场产生各种不同的看法。这没关系，我不是来评论这个的。每个人都有权利形成自己的意见，比如说，没有人非得成为特斯拉的股东。特斯拉在历史上表现不错，如果你不想成为特斯拉的股东，你完全没有必要去做。
Francis, thank you. I appreciate that. Good to see you on here. Greg, I know I thank you. And then there was one other one trying to like pull up the name here. I'm not sure. 40 watt. Thank you for that. I appreciate that. Okay. Why don't really want to end it on that note? Let's hopefully we can find another question here. Next question I saw was why does the audio suck? I'm sorry if it did. I try to make sure that that doesn't happen, but hopefully it was okay.
弗朗西斯，谢谢你。我很感激。在这儿见到你真好。格雷格，我知道我已经感谢过你了。还有另外一个人，我试图找到名字……哦，对了，是40瓦，谢谢你。我很感激。嗯，我不太想就这样结束。所以希望我们能找到另一个问题。下一个我看到的问题是“为什么音频这么差？”如果音频不好，我很抱歉。我尽量确保这种情况不会发生，希望问题不大。
I'm not your audio's Tesla's. Yeah, I wish they would make some better audio here for the earnings calls. It's like I thought you guys are a technology company. It's almost like nostalgic now to have terrible audio on earnings calls. Please go back and share your thoughts on hardware 3 FSD comments. I assume that's in reference to like what the upgrade path for hardware 3 is. Yeah, it's a tricky tricky topic right because so far hardware 3 probably hasn't delivered on what the expectations that Tesla set at least in 2017.
我不是你们音频的特斯拉。是的，我希望他们能在业绩电话会议中提供更好的音频。我以为你们是家科技公司，现在音频这么糟糕几乎让人怀旧。请回到正题，分享一下你们对硬件3的FSD（全自动驾驶）评论。我猜你们是在谈论硬件3的升级路径。对，这是个棘手的话题，因为到目前为止，硬件3可能还没有达到特斯拉在2017年设定的期望。
I think overtime Tesla walked back on what some of those expectations should be. So there's a spectrum of expectations around that hardware for people. And I experienced that. I was a hardware 3 owner for a long time right for like four years. I did the FSD transfer to a new vehicle. Obviously there's additional expense with that, but it you know I never I didn't ever feel like it wasn't necessarily fair. My expectation going in was that this was something that would be being developed for a long time that no one can overshare if it's going to work or not.
我觉得特斯拉逐渐缩小了人们对某些硬件的期望。对这个硬件的期望会有所不同，我就有这样的经历。我曾经是一个硬件3的用户，使用了大约四年。我后来将全自动驾驶功能（FSD）转移到了一辆新车上。显然，这需要额外的费用，但我从来没有觉得这不公平。一开始我的期望就是这项技术需要很长时间来开发，没有人能百分之百确定它是否会成功。
So maybe my expectations were like a little bit lower than the expectations that Tesla publicly set. So I recognize that I empathize with that. I do think that overtime Tesla has done a lot to try to make hardware 3 work. I think that they're going to do what they can to make those customers eventually happy, but like a car has a finite life right. You can't just wait 20 years and be like, oh we're going to upgrade your car. Oh you don't have your car anymore. Like yes, that solves the problem, but it's not like the best customer experience obviously.
所以，也许我的期望比特斯拉公开设定的期望要低一些。我理解并同情这一点。我确实认为，特斯拉一直在努力让硬件3发挥作用。我相信他们会尽力让那些顾客最终感到满意。但是，汽车的寿命是有限的，对吧。你不能等个20年然后说，“哦，我们要升级你的车。”结果对方说，“哦，我不再拥有那辆车了。”这样虽然解决了问题，但显然不是最好的客户体验。
So I do think that Tesla cares about it. I do think that they'll do what they can to make it right. But I also think that they need to. They absolutely have to make sure that they can get unsupervised FSD working like that above anything else, even above making those customers like happy or feel whole or whatever that needs to happen. Partially even just because it's like life-saving technology right. Like you're if you're sitting there making that decision of like, oh should we spend our time like upgrading people, spend our resources upgrading people to this hardware that isn't quite there yet.
所以我确实认为特斯拉对此很关注。我也相信他们会尽力去解决问题。但是，我也认为他们必须这样做。他们绝对需要确保能够让无人监督的FSD正常工作，这比其他任何事情都重要，甚至比让那些顾客满意或感到完整更重要。部分原因是因为这是能够拯救生命的技术。就像你在考虑一个决定，比如 "哦，我们应该花时间和资源来升级用户到这些还不那么成熟的硬件上吗？"
Or should we make sure that this hardware actually gets there crosses the finish line, start saving lives. Like it's a pretty clear choice of pick the one that's going to save more lives. And that's just even setting aside the economics, which that's an even more clear picture of like, yeah, you've got to solve FSD first. So it's completely rational. It's the decision that makes sense. It's the right decision. But recognizing that that decision causes frustration for a big portion of the customer set, which happens to be a very supportive group that was like early adopters and got Tesla to where they're at today.
或者，我们是否应该确保这些硬件真正到位，完成使命，开始拯救生命。这是一个非常明确的选择，就是选择能够拯救更多生命的选项。即使不考虑经济因素，这种选择也是明智的，毕竟从经济角度来看，首先解决全自动驾驶（FSD）问题会更清晰合理。因此，这是一个完全理性的决定，是合适的决定。但同时也要认识到，这个决定会让一大部分客户群感到沮丧，这些客户是之前对我们非常支持的早期用户，他们帮助特斯拉走到了今天的地位。
So it's a tricky problem. But I think that Tesla's answer is the correct one, even if it that is, you know, frustrating. So it is good that I think, you know, I think it's something that absolutely should be happening. That FSD transfer is something that's being allowed, especially in markets where FSD hasn't really been available. Like that's kind of a no brainer that that should be the case.
所以这是一个棘手的问题。但我认为特斯拉的解决方案是正确的，即使这可能让人感到沮丧。我觉得这绝对是一件应该发生的事情。特别是在全自动驾驶（FSD）功能尚未真正上市的市场，允许FSD转让是理所当然的。
So I'm glad Tesla's offering that. I'm glad they're expanding the offering of that. And I think that over time, Tesla will do what they can to, you know, make it right with those customers. That's going to result in some people that had a bad experience. And that's it's unfortunate. I'm sure that's never been Tesla's intent and not their desired outcome. But you know, sometimes that is what happens when you're working on really difficult problems.
所以我很高兴特斯拉提供了这个产品。我很高兴他们在扩大提供这个产品。我相信随着时间的推移，特斯拉会尽力去弥补那些客户的不满。这会导致一些人有不好的经历，这点是令人遗憾的。我相信这从来不是特斯拉的初衷，也不是他们想要的结果。但有时候，当你在处理非常复杂的问题时，这种情况就是会发生。
And I'm not sure that there's a way around that other than just managing it better upfront, which, you know, certainly a fair criticism, I suppose. But are you going to hate the company forever because of that? I mean, I'm not just my personal point of view on that. So again, I think that Tesla cares about them, about those customers, and we'll do what they can to give us good over resolution as possible on that situation.
我不确定除了在一开始就更好地管理之外，还有什么其他解决办法。当然，这是一个合理的批评。但你会因为这个原因永远恨这家公司吗？这仅仅是我个人的看法。我认为特斯拉关心他们的客户，并会尽力在这种情况下提供尽可能好的解决方案。
And hardware three, like hardware three is it's gotten better. It is still very good. It's like that if hardware four Tesla didn't exist, that would be the best sort of driver assistance technology that you could buy in any car like hardware three, which what that's eight years old now. And it would still be the best. So I think that's worth just keeping in mind. It could sound like hardware three just sucks and is worse than everything else out there on the road. It's better way way better than anything else out there on the road, except for Tesla's other product. So that's very important context, I think.
硬件三与硬件三的性能有所提升，仍然非常出色。如果没有硬件四特斯拉的话，硬件三就是市面上所有汽车中最好的驾驶辅助技术。硬件三到现在已经有八年历史了，但它依然是最好的。因此，我认为这点值得铭记。可能听起来硬件三很糟糕，比路上的其他所有东西都差，其实除特斯拉的其他产品外，硬件三比路上其他任何东西都要好得多。我觉得这个背景信息非常重要。
All right. Well, I suppose that's not my favorite place to wrap it up either, but as good of any, again, I think just overall today, like probably pretty uneventful in terms of an earnings day. I don't think that we got anything like any major groundbreaking announcements or anything like that. That wasn't what I was expecting. I doubt many people were expecting that.
好吧。我想这地方结尾也不是我最喜欢的方式，不过还算不错。总体来说，今天可能算是个平淡的财报日。我觉得我们没有得到什么重大突破性的公告或类似的事情。这也不是我所期待的，我怀疑很多人也没期待这些。
The biggest thing to keep an eye on now is just what happens in Austin, what happens elsewhere with the robots actually roll out. And I think by the time that we talk again, which will be at the latest next quarter, we're going to see some pretty dramatic progress. So that'll be the next checkpoint if nothing sooner and looking forward to continuing the discussion then. All right. Thanks everybody.
现在最值得关注的事情就是在奥斯汀以及其他地方，机器人实际部署时会发生什么。我认为，到我们下次交谈时，最晚下个季度，我们会看到一些相当显著的进展。所以，如果没有更早的更新，这将是下一个观察点。期待届时继续讨论。好的，谢谢大家。