Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
发布时间 2025-07-23 23:29:08 来源
Secretary Besant, it's wonderful to see you. Before we maybe deep dive into AI, do you want to give us the high level update on the 333 plan? How are things going? You had an incredible clip by the way with Maria Barteromo where you talked about some of the things that were happening economically. Maybe just level set everybody on what's going on. So just for good framing, during the campaign, Ida, 333 plan. I think it's microphones off. Can we get the microphone on for Scott? Test test. There it is. Okay, good.
贝赞特秘书，见到你真好。在我们深入探讨人工智能之前，你想不想先给我们更新一下333计划的总体情况？事情进展如何？顺便说一下，你和玛丽亚·巴特罗莫的那段访谈视频非常出色，你在其中谈到了经济方面的一些发展。也许可以先让大家对当前情况有个大致了解。为了更好地理解，在竞选期间，有个名为333的计划。我想麦克风关了。能打开斯科特的麦克风吗？测试，测试。好了，可以了。
So Ida plan that I called 333 and the idea was to get the budget deficit, which was running about 6.7% of GDP under the Biden administration, highest that we'd ever had when we weren't at war or in a recession down to 3%, 3% plus percent economic growth on a persistent basis, and to create 3 million more barrels of energy equivalent. So oil and gas before President Trump leaves office. And we're full speed ahead. We had the first June was the first positive June for the Treasury since 2015. We actually had a surplus. And we did that in a good way. We took in more revenues, some from tariffs, and we brought down spending.
所以，Ida 的计划是我称之为333的计划，目的是将预算赤字从拜登政府时期的6.7%（相对于GDP）降到3%。当时，这已经是我们在没有战争或经济衰退情况下的最高赤字。计划还包括实现3%以上的持续经济增长，以及在特朗普总统离任前增加300万桶能源等价物的生产，即石油和天然气。我们在全速推进。我们迎来了自2015年以来，第一个财政盈余的6月。我们通过良好的方式实现了盈余：增加了一些关税收入，同时减少了支出。
And when I think about what we can do here, that what I'm really excited about is the idea with AI that we can go back to the paradigm. When I was younger in the 90s, Alan Greenspan was able to run the economy very hot in the 90s. And because it was the IT boom, and we had this very powerful noninflationary growth. And I think that it's highly likely we could have that now. And so that kind of growth would bring down the deficit very quickly. There's been a lot of talk today about the amount of cap expending that needs to go into AI. And all of the jobs that it creates, and you posted as well, actually, a couple days ago, and you talked about that there's just been an inflection point that you've seen in cap expending, sort of as a steward of the US economy.
当我想到我们在这里可以做什么时，我感到非常兴奋的是，利用人工智能，我们可以回到一个旧的范式。上世纪90年代，我还年轻的时候，艾伦·格林斯潘能够在90年代让经济运行得非常好。因为那时正值信息技术（IT）的繁荣，我们经历了强劲的非通胀增长。我认为，我们现在也很可能实现这种增长模式。这种类型的增长可以迅速降低财政赤字。今天有很多关于人工智能需要大量资本支出的讨论。这不仅创造了大量就业机会，而且几天前你也提到过，资本支出显然出现了一个转折点，作为美国经济的管理者，你也看到了这一点。
Can you tell us about what's happening? So it's combination, and it's a barbells. So I've been in Pittsburgh twice in the past four weeks. Four weeks ago, I went with President Trump. When he announced the US Steal, Nippon Steal Deal, substantial investment by Nippon Steal into an old, very important industry. And then last week on Tuesday, there was an AI summit in Pittsburgh, all the big players. And Pittsburgh is a natural location for AI. Lots of cheap energy, Carnegie Mellon, Pitt are there. And so it was very interesting to see the juxtaposition there.
你能告诉我们发生了什么吗？事情结合在一起，就像一个杠铃。我在过去的四周内去了匹兹堡两次。四周前，我和特朗普总统一起去的，当时他宣布了美国钢铁公司与日本钢铁公司的合作协议，日本钢铁对一个传统且重要的行业进行了大规模投资。然后在上周二，匹兹堡举办了一场AI峰会，所有大的玩家都到场。匹兹堡是AI的理想地点，有廉价的能源，而且卡内基梅隆大学和匹兹堡大学也在这里。所以看到这种对比真的很有趣。
But we are seeing this incredible capex, the hyperscalers, or obviously been in an arms race, kind of the big five, the big seven. We estimate that that is approximately 1% of GDP a year. Wow. So $300 billion, wow, that's being spent on AI. And in my perfect world, which never happens, we would go through this big capex boom. And then sometime in 26, the capex boom would hand off to a productivity boom. And it's an incredible thing because it's sort of you mentioned alluded to this a little bit earlier. But it does violate a lot of economic theory in the sense that it just hasn't had the negative pernicious effects.
我们看到令人难以置信的资本支出，尤其是在超级规模计算领域，五大、七大公司似乎正在进行一场军备竞赛。我们估计，这些支出占每年国内生产总值（GDP）的约1%。哇，也就是说大约有3000亿美元用于人工智能。在我理想的世界里，这种情况从未发生过，我们会经历一场资本支出的大爆发，然后在2026年左右，这种资本支出热潮会转化为生产力的飞跃。这很不可思议，因为正如你稍早提到的，这种情况违背了许多经济理论，因为它并没有带来负面的恶性影响。
Do you think is that, is that a yet thing? Or do you think that we're in a structurally different kind of economy now? You mean the AI boom? Yeah. Well, look, we've seen throughout history that technology can drive these things. If you go back, I'll talk about the ones I was around for. I was not around for the railroads, but I used to teach economic history. 1880s, 1890s, the railroads made it 10 times faster across the United States. We had this incredible productivity boom. It was the gigantic GDP growth, and it was disinflationary.
你认为这是一个还未发生的事情，还是我们现在处在一个结构上不同的经济环境中？你是指AI（人工智能）热潮吗？是的。回顾历史，我们看到科技往往能推动这些变化。让我来说说我亲历过的时代，我没有经历过铁路的兴起，但我曾教授经济史。在19世纪80年代和90年代，铁路让横跨美国的速度提升了10倍，我们经历了惊人的生产力提升，也带来了巨大的GDP增长，同时降低了通货膨胀。
So imagine you're having double digit GDP numbers. And inflation was minus two minus three minus four percent, just because the costs were coming down. Then in the 1980s, under Reagan, we had what I would call a deregulatory boom, because hard for anyone, everyone in this room to remember, but everything used to be regulated. Price of airline tickets, telephone bills, banking services. So 1980s, we had a deregulatory boom. You know, Paul Volcker brought down inflation, but it was also the deregulation.
想象一下，你的GDP增长是两位数的，而且通货膨胀率是负的，比如负2%、负3%、负4%，这只是因为成本在下降。然后到了1980年代，在里根执政期间，我们迎来了我所称的“去监管繁荣”。也许在座的各位很难想象，但过去什么东西都是受监管的，比如说机票价格、电话费、银行服务等。 所以在1980年代，我们经历了一次去监管的繁荣。保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）降低了通货膨胀率，但去监管也起了很大作用。
1990s, which I previously mentioned, we had had an electronic buildup, and then finally, it kicked in, especially in office work, and that led to a big productivity boom, and we paid down the national debt. We had a surplus. And I mean, it seems crazy. I found a paper the other day that people were wondering, what are we going to do if there aren't any government bonds? But we didn't have the love. But we fix that. They're playing government bonds. But I do think there's a chance now that we could have this growth acceleration, and if I'm shooting for 3%, but I can tell you, the trajectory of the debt path really changes.
在1990年代，正如我之前提到的，我们经历了一场电子技术的迅猛发展。最终，这种技术特别是在办公室工作中获得了应用，从而带来了巨大的生产力提升，并使得我们能够偿还国债。我们甚至出现了财政盈余。这种情况简直让人难以置信。我最近看到一篇文章，上面提到人们曾经担心如果没有政府债券该怎么办。不过，当时我们缺乏热情，但后来我们解决了这个问题，政府重新发行了大量债券。不过，我认为现在有机会出现经济增长加速，我的目标是3%的增长率，这将显著改变债务的轨迹。
And if we can also have lower interest rates, because it's not inflationary, and I think the Fed's going to have to be open to this idea. So let me have two questions on that. The first is that the examples you gave, we didn't have some of the tariff that, since we last talked, several of these trade deals have been negotiated out further. You have better clarity probably on what the tariff rates are going to be. What do you estimate the dampening effects on the growth rate to be, if any, associated with the tariffs in those trade deals?
如果我们还能享有较低的利率，因为这不会导致通货膨胀，我认为美联储需要对此持开放态度。那么，我有两个问题。第一个问题是，您之前提到的例子中，自我们上次谈话以来，一些贸易协议已被进一步谈妥，因此您可能对未来的关税水平有了更清晰的了解。您估计这些贸易协议中的关税会对增长率产生怎样的抑制效应，如果有的话？
And second is love to hear your point of view on the Chinese report of selling half of their US treasuries, and where's the market for treasuries going to kind of fall over time here? So, to address the interest rate? Yeah, so I think that in terms of the, well, I'll take the second one first. We expect that the Chinese will slowly divest, but with the passage of the genius legislation last week.
其次，我很想听听你对中国出售一半美国国债报道的看法，以及未来国债市场可能会如何变化。这与利率有关系吗？我先回答第二个问题。我们预计中国将逐步出售美国国债，但随着上周那项重要立法的通过，这个过程可能会有所影响。
I think that we could see several trillion dollars of demand for T-bills because the way the legislation works, it's under 90 days. And I think that that's really going to lock in the US dollar in terms of individuals on the street end, whether it's Nigeria, Qualum Poor, or going to be using US backstable coins. And if I think about the alternative, if you think about a central bank digital currency, China, Euro, or ECB, or even Canada, a lot of you will remember during COVID, the Canadian government, they didn't like what some truckers were doing.
我认为，由于法律的运作方式，T-票据可能会出现数万亿美元的需求，因为其期限在90天之内。这将真正稳固美元在日常个人中的地位，无论是在尼日利亚、吉隆坡，还是会使用以美元为后盾的稳定币的人们。如果考虑替代方案，比如中央银行数字货币——无论是中国的、欧元或是欧洲央行的，甚至是加拿大的数字货币，很多人可能还记得在疫情期间，加拿大政府对一些卡车司机的行动不太满意的事件。
They seized and froze their bank accounts. So, with a central bank digital currency, you could put out a mean tweet, not that any of you are. But if you put out a mean tweet. No, I want to hear his known for doing that. Ever. That if you have a government backstable, then they can shut you down as opposed to this unbridled choice that consumers are going to have for US dollar stable coins.
他们查封并冻结了他们的银行账户。因此，如果有了央行数字货币，你可能发了一条恶意推文，尽管你们都不会这样做。但是假如你发了一条恶意推文，如果政府有了官方支持的稳定币，就可以封锁你的账户，这与消费者可以自由选择的美元稳定币不同。
And on the first question about growth rates being hampered by tariffs, is the revenue you're seeing offsetting effectively the rate that. We haven't seen that yet. And I think there's a good chance that we could see. So, if we think about China, so China has a high tariff rate, it's 30%. And the Chinese business model is like the brooms and the water buckets from Fantasia.
关于第一个问题，即关税是否阻碍了增长率，您所看到的收益是否有效抵消了这一点。到目前为止，我们还没有看到，但我认为有很大可能性我们会看到变化。以中国为例，中国有很高的关税率，达到30%。而中国的商业模式就像《幻想曲》中的扫帚和水桶一样。
They just keep going. And it's an appointment agency. I'm thinking of the song. I know the piece. And it's an appointment. So, they will just keep cutting costs to maintain market share. So, we haven't seen that thus far. And a lot of the other foreign producers have cut price to maintain market share. A lot of the US companies have. Even their margins to maintain market share.
他们就是这样一直持续推进。这是一个中介公司。我在想着那首歌，我知道这个曲子。这是一场约定。所以，他们会继续削减成本以维持市场份额。而到目前为止，我们还没有看到这种情况。许多其他外国生产商已经削减了价格以保持市场份额。许多美国公司也是如此，甚至牺牲了利润率以维持市场份额。
And then. But the other thing we're seeing is the tariffs are creating the on-shoring. So, you might have seen. Can you remember whether it was yesterday, the day before, AstraZeneca said that they were going to build. 50 billion. 50 billion. Incredible. .a plant here. So, we're seeing this big on-shoring move that I think can accelerate all that.
然后，我们还看到，关税正在推动产业回流。您可能已经注意到，不知道您是否记得是昨天还是前天，阿斯利康宣布他们将在这里建造一个工厂，投资金额高达500亿。简直令人难以置信。因此，我们正在看到这个巨大的产业回流趋势，我认为这将加速整个过程。
So, I think there's a very good chance that we see. Just like with AI, we're seeing now we're in the construction boom phase. Then we're going to be in the use case. I think we could have this massive construction boom. And then the factories get populated. And part of President Trump's one big beautiful bill. The most powerful part of that is the 100% immediate expense of equipment.
所以，我认为我们很有可能看到，就像人工智能一样，我们现在正处于一个建设的高峰期。接下来，我们将进入实际应用阶段。我觉得我们可能会有一次大规模的建设高潮。然后工厂会投入使用。这和特朗普总统的庞大计划有关，其中最强有力的部分是设备的100%即时开支。
And we also did it for factories. So, not only are we trying to make the U.S. the best destination regulatory-wise, we're also making it tax-wise. So, you can immediately write off all the equipment for the next five years. You're going to be able to write off the factory structure. And I saw Secretary Bergamon write. And we're going to have cheap energy.
我们也为工厂做了类似的改进。因此，我们不仅努力使美国在法规方面成为最佳目的地，也在税务方面进行优化。未来五年，你可以立即冲销所有设备的费用，还可以冲销工厂建筑的成本。而且，我看到伯加蒙部长也在记录这点。我们将拥有廉价的能源。
Yeah. Which seems like a pretty good combination. Should the Fed remain independent? Sorry. The Fed. Should it remain independent? Should Trump replace the Fed chair? You know, you guys seem a bit frustrated with him. What are your thoughts there? Because you guys have done such a good job in terms of the confidence in the markets.
是的。这似乎是个不错的组合。美联储应该保持独立吗？抱歉，我是说美联储。它应该保持独立吗？特朗普应该更换美联储主席吗？你们似乎对他有些不满。你们对此有什么看法？因为在提升市场信心方面，你们做得很出色。
CPI went up a little bit in June. And it does seem like the economy is very strong. And people are very confident. So, then, polymarket is showing no rate cut is the most likely case in September. So, how do you think about the Fed? Well, I think if you look, the Fed publishes something called the summary of economic projections.
在六月，消费者物价指数（CPI）小幅上升。而且，经济似乎很强劲，人们也很有信心。因此，Polymarket 的数据显示，在九月份，最可能出现的情况是不会降息。那么，你怎么看美联储呢？我认为，如果你查看一下，美联储发布了一个叫做经济预测摘要的东西。
And it's pretty politically biased. But we're seeing that we can see one, two rate cuts this year. And I think that once we see over the next one, two months that the tariffs haven't been inflationary. And I have breakfast with Chair Powell almost every week. And I just keep saying that a one-time price level increase is very different than the notion of a persistent inflationary spiral.
这句话表达的意思是：“它在政治上有一定的偏见。不过，我们看到今年可能会有一到两次利率下调。我认为在接下来的一个或两个月中，我们会发现关税并没有导致通货膨胀。我几乎每周都和鲍威尔主席一起吃早餐，我一再强调，一次性的价格水平上涨与持续的通胀螺旋是非常不同的概念。”
I think that we used to say TDS was Trump's arrangement syndrome. I know I'll say TDS is tariffed arrangement syndrome. Right. So, when you think about it, the market crashed. Then it had the fastest recovery in history over a 54-day period. We're back at a new high. So, I think the market is looking through all this, too, next year, with the productivity boom. And to the question, I think minimum on a forward 12-month basis, we're going to take in at least $300 billion in tariff income.
我认为，我们过去常说TDS是“特朗普安排综合症”。现在我觉得TDS也可以理解为“关税安排综合症”。对吧？想想看，市场曾经崩盘，然后在短短的54天内经历了历史上最快的复苏，现在又达到了新高。因此，我认为市场也在展望未来，尤其是明年生产力的激增。至于问题，我认为在未来12个月的时间里，我们至少会从关税收入中获得3000亿美元。
Are they punishing you in a way for maybe the rollout of the tariffs was a little bit shock and awe or a little bit effervescent? Have you wanted to describe it? It was pretty intense. Is the fed sort of punishing you for that in your mind? I think they're just stuck in an old way of thinking. How much did they cut? How should they think? I'm only going to talk about the mistakes they made, not the mistakes they're going to make. I do think at a point they're just going to have to admit that they have been wrong.
他们是不是在某种程度上惩罚你，因为关税的推出有点震撼，或者说有点过于急切？无论你怎么形容，那都是非常激烈的。他们是不是因为这个在惩罚你？我觉得他们只是固守在旧的思维方式中。他们削减了多少？他们该怎么思考？我只会谈论他们已经犯的错误，而不是他们将来可能犯的错误。我确实认为，他们最终必须承认自己错了。
Because if you think about it, I don't believe that a tariff is a consumption tax. But if tomorrow we put on a 1% consumption tax, you would never say that's 1% inflation. So, I am hoping that in their infinite wisdom that the, I can't remember, it's a 350 PhD economist, which I said on TV yesterday the day before. My worry is that the fed is turning into universal basic income per PhD economist. I don't know what they do. They're never right. Maybe you should double the number of PhDs. If you go to 700, they might get it right.
因为如果你仔细想想，我不认为关税是一种消费税。但是如果明天我们加征1%的消费税，你不会说那是1%的通货膨胀。所以我希望在他们无尽的智慧中，不记得是有350名经济学博士，我前几天在电视上说过。我的担忧是，美联储正在变成经济学博士的全民基本收入支持者。我不知道他们具体在做什么，总是预测不准。或许你应该把博士的人数翻倍，如果增加到700人，他们可能就能搞对了。
If you were to look at the central value tendency versus how they've done, it's shocking. I said, like, if air traffic controllers did this, no one would get an airplane. They do seem to put a little tail stuff in everything. The last question maybe as you wrap this up, Secretary has an economic historian. Maybe just very briefly tell us the lessons of these previous economic expansions, technological booms.
如果你去比较一下他们的中心价值趋势和实际表现，结果会让人吃惊。我说过，如果空中交通管制员这样做，没有人能坐上飞机。他们确实似乎在一切事情中留了一点余地。最后一个问题，或许在结束时，作为一位经济历史学家，部长能否简要告诉我们以往经济扩张和技术繁荣的经验教训？
What we need to learn from those things, whether it was railroads or whether it was the Agrarian revolution or the Industrial Revolution, so that we don't screw up the AI revolution. What are the few critical things we need to do? I think the most important thing that we are doing is getting out of the way and setting the conditions for it. Because I would say one of the surprises that I've had, I've had a lot of them. When I went from civilian to public servant, in the US, we've made it so hard to build things.
我们需要从历史上那些事件中学习，不论是铁路的兴起还是农业革命或工业革命，以避免在人工智能革命中犯错。那么，我们需要做哪些关键的事情呢？我认为最重要的一点是，我们需要尽量不去干预，并创造有利条件。因为对我来说，当我从平民转变为公共服务人员时，感到意外的是，在美国，我们让建造东西变得如此困难。
It's just very frustrating. I'm sure Doug and Chris will talk about it. This idea, TSMC wants to build a gigantic fab system in Arizona. I think it might be able to produce up to 7% of the chips that the United States needs. They're dealing with local building inspectors. And evidently, these chip design plants are moving so quickly, you're constantly calling an audible. You're saying, well, three months ago it looked like this, but in 18 months we've now decided it needs to look like this.
这真的让人很沮丧。我相信道格和克里斯会讨论这个问题。台积电打算在亚利桑那州建立一个巨大的工厂系统。我认为这个工厂可能能生产出美国所需芯片的7%。他们正在处理当地建筑检查员的问题。显然，这些芯片设计厂发展的速度非常快，你需要不断地调整计划。你可能会说，三个月前它看起来是这样的，但经过十八个月后，我们决定它需要是另一个样子。
You've got someone saying, while the pipe was going to be there, not there, we're shutting you down. And they're just the level of permitting. We always talk about how, I think it may have even talked about it under podcasts, how Germany had de-industrialized. We've made the decision to de-industrialize through our environmental regulations. And I think the most important thing we can do is make it easy to build things again and stay out of the way and not over-regulate.
有人说，当管道原本应该在那里的时候却不在，他们要停工。而这只是审批环节的一部分。我们一直在谈论，我想可能还在播客上讨论过，德国是如何去工业化的。通过环境法规，我们也做出了去工业化的决定。我认为我们最重要的事情就是让建造东西再次变得简单，并且尽量少干预，不要过度监管。
Secretary, thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you guys for being here. I know it's been a rushed afternoon. We did not expect the incredible turnout that we've had, but thank you both. You're the chair and the vice chair of the National Energy Dominance Council. We've talked at length today about the boom underway in AI. We've talked about this on the podcast, the US Energy Production Capacity.
秘书，谢谢你，非常感谢。感谢大家的到来。我知道今天下午很匆忙。我们没有预料到会有这么多的人来，但还是要感谢你们两位。你们是国家能源主导委员会的主席和副主席。今天我们详细讨论了人工智能领域的发展热潮。我们在播客上也谈到了这个话题，以及美国的能源生产能力。
The electricity production capacity is about a terawatt today growing to an estimated two terawatts by 2040. China is going from three to eight. They're adding in America every 18 months. Maybe you guys could just give us an update on the National Energy Dominance Council, how that work is going to try and accelerate energy production in the United States to help enable this AI boom. Well, happy to do that.
目前的电力生产能力大约为一个太瓦，预计到2040年将增长到两个太瓦。中国则从三个太瓦增长到八个太瓦。美国每18个月增加一个太瓦。也许你们可以给我们更新一下国家能源主导委员会的情况，介绍一下这项工作如何加速美国的能源生产，以支持人工智能的快速发展。乐意为您解答。
And I just want to say again, thanks to the all-in for pulling together this amazing team. Helen Valley. Yes. And Helen Valley too. Thanks, Christian. When we look back on this day, when historians look back on the challenge of our times, which is like the summit called winning the AI arms race, I think one of the things they're going to conclude is that the reason why the United States won the AI arms race was because of President Trump.
我想再一次表达感谢，感谢全体成员的努力，让这个优秀的团队得以组建。Helen Valley，也是要特别感谢的。谢谢你，Christian。当我们回顾今天，历史学家回顾我们时代的挑战，比如赢得AI竞赛的这个高峰时，我认为他们会得出的结论之一是，美国之所以赢得AI竞赛是因为川普总统。
And I'm not saying that as a political statement. I'm saying that the policy of the Trump administration is more energy fast and an understanding of how important it is for the AI arms race. And so with that, as you've just outlined, we've got a huge challenge ahead of us. China is deploying everything. I mean, they had a 94 gigawatts of coal last year, one gigawatts of Denver. And they're over 60 percent of their power is still coming from coal. They're just pouring that on. Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday talking about what a great job that China was doing with EVs and was solar. They read the whole article. They never mentioned coal. It's two thirds of their electrical power. And so then just by definition, I mean, two thirds of the EV cars in China should have a bumper sticker that says powered by coal. So they are, this is a, we're in a race of our lifetime.
我不是在发表政治声明。我是说特朗普政府的政策更注重快速能源发展，并认识到在人工智能军备竞赛中能源的重要性。正如你所述，我们面临巨大的挑战。中国正在全力以赴进行投入。去年，他们增加了94吉瓦的燃煤发电，而丹佛只有1吉瓦的发电能力。他们超过60%的电力仍依赖煤炭，正不断加大使用力度。《华尔街日报》昨天刊登了一篇关于中国在电动汽车和太阳能方面表现出色的文章，但整篇文章都没有提到煤炭，而实际上三分之二的电力来自煤炭。因此，从某种意义上说，中国有三分之二的电动汽车可以贴上“煤炭驱动”的标签。这是一场关乎我们这一生的重要竞赛。
They're also doing nuclear. They're doing hydro. They've got no permitting issues. I mean, they build a hydro dam and be like the equivalent of us putting a dam on the Grand Canyon with they're doing in the Yang Sea. So we've got real competition. We can lead in technology, but we haven't been leading on electric production. So the National Energy Dominance Council, part of the job that Chris and I have is helping through cut red tape produce more electricity, whether it's hydrogeothermal, nuclear. And, and, and of course, Ellen, Ellen G natural gas is a key part of this and then bringing back coal and making sure that we'd stop shutting down baseload in America is been a key part of what we're doing.
他们也在发展核能和水电，并且没有遇到许可方面的问题。我的意思是，他们建造一个水坝的规模就像我们在大峡谷上建一个水坝一样，他们就是在扬子江上这么做的。所以，我们面临真正的竞争。我们可以在技术上领先，但在电力生产上我们并没有领先。因此，国家能源优势委员会的一部分工作是我和克里斯共同努力，通过减少繁文缛节来提高电力生产，无论是水电、地热能还是核能。当然，液化天然气（LNG）也是其中的关键部分。我们也在推动煤炭的回归，并确保停止在美国关闭基础负载电力设施，这也是我们正在进行的关键工作之一。
Yeah, he's just a rip off that where United States gets electricity today in order natural gas by far, then nuclear, then coal. Those three sources are 75% of US electricity and 90% of what matters, which is electricity that's there, whether the sun's shining or the wind is blowing. But we had in the previous administrations plans to remove three and a half gigawatts of hydro power. We're going to stop that. There's plans between now in 2030 to close to close 100 gigawatts of power plants, 100 gigawatts. And we're stopping most all that.
好的，他只是认为美国目前的电力供应主要依赖于天然气，然后是核能，再然后是煤炭。这三种来源占美国电力供应的75%，而且更加重要的是，它们提供了90%稳定的电力，也就是说无论太阳是否照耀或者风是否吹起，电力依然能供应。然而，在之前的政府计划中，有意去掉3.5吉瓦的水电。我们将停止这个计划。从现在到2030年之间，还计划关闭接近100吉瓦的发电厂。我们将停止大部分这样的计划。
Yeah, just I see the head nodding right if we need to add 100 after the means they had this morning, I think it's more than 100 gigawatts in the next five or seven years. The first thing to do is stop subtracting 100 at the same time you want to add 100. But I think America became great by big bold people making big bold investments. That's where we got here. And then we just drifted off track the last bunch of years and made it so hard to build something so easy to stop something and just a crazy love affair with intermittent unreliable energy sources.
好的，我看到大家点头同意我们的看法。如果我们需要在今早的基础上增加100，未来五到七年内可能需要增加超过100吉瓦。首先要做的是停止一边增加100、一边又减掉100的做法。我认为美国之所以伟大，是因为有勇敢果断的人做出了大胆的投资。我们过去就是这样成功的。然而，最近这些年，我们逐渐偏离了轨道，让建设变得困难而阻止某些事情却变得容易，此外对不稳定且不可靠的能源来源陷入了疯狂的热恋。
And talking about solar, why so down on solar? This is the cheapest thing you can install batteries are here and they're being produced at an incredible rate. Why are we so anti solar? But why are you so anti solar? I'm not anti solar. Why do you keep saying then that like this unreliable solar if you put batteries on it, it's totally reliable. If you take all the batteries in the United States, you can store five minutes of power, five minutes of the entire country. But if we've had many days in California and in Texas where solar has been the majority of it, so why are you so down on solar?
关于太阳能，为什么对它这么消极呢？这是你能安装的最便宜的东西，电池的生产速度也很惊人。为什么我们这么反对太阳能？为什么你这么反对太阳能？我并不反对太阳能。那你为什么总是说太阳能不可靠呢？如果配上电池，它是完全可靠的。如果你把美国所有的电池加起来，也只能储存全美五分钟的电力。但在加州和得克萨斯州，我们有很多天依靠太阳能为主。那你为什么对太阳能这么消极呢？
It can be the majority on a sunny day in the summertime. Yeah, that's not what matters. In PJM where we are right now, a peak demand this year, 97% of electricity, wind solar and batteries delivered 3%. That's when it matters. If you're 20% on that, we're cherry picking DC, we're cherry picking DC. Let's talk about California and Texas. These were very volume estates in terms of population. Absolutely. Let's talk Texas. So the peak demand times in Texas have been cold spells, lobe their high pressure systems in the winter time. Wind and solar go on vacation. There's 35% of the capacity in Texas, 8% of the delivered power peak demand. Talking about two weeks, I live in Texas.
在夏天阳光灿烂的日子里，可能是大多数情况。然而，那并不是重点。在我们现在所在的PJM地区，今年的用电高峰时段，风能、太阳能和电池提供了3%的电力，其余97%由其他能源提供。重要的时刻就是这样。如果你在这个时候达到20%，我们就像在为华盛顿特区挑选最佳数据。让我们来谈谈加利福尼亚和德克萨斯，这两个州人口都非常多。没错。先说德克萨斯吧，那里的峰值用电时段通常发生在冬天的寒潮期间，高气压系统导致风能和太阳能基本“休假”。在德克萨斯州，风能和太阳能占据了35%的发电容量，但在峰值需求时刻仅提供了8%的电力。我住在德克萨斯，所以对那两周的情况很了解。
Yeah, but those are the two weeks that matter. Right? No, the other 50 other ones that matter actually. But sure, in in in in Yuri when they weren't ready over 200 people died. We don't want people to die. We want the lights to go on when people need them. And it's the system cost that matters. If you're not there at game time, all you are is a parasite on the planet.
是的，但那两个星期才是关键。对吧？不，实际上还有其他50个星期也同样重要。不过可以肯定的是，在尤里的时候，他们没有准备好，导致超过200人死亡。我们不希望看到有人丧生。我们希望在人们需要的时候，灯能亮起来。重要的是系统的成本。如果在关键时刻你不在场，那你不过是地球上的一个寄生虫。
Let me redirect this back to AI because good idea. So if you if you actually forecast the growth of just the servers and then the robots and all of these things, we're going to need terawatts and terawatts. That's on one side. And so the obvious solution would be to build right to drill to do what we need to do. And then on the other side is this latent fear that some people have that this will somehow upset the apple cart sustainability, the climate, etc. How do we create the logical bridge so that people really understand that this is all possible that this is not going to destroy the earth and that we can get this abundant energy, especially because as you guys have said very well, if we don't do it and somebody else has marginal costless energy, they will de facto win. So how do we frame the arguments so that people can understand this better?
让我重新把话题转回到人工智能，因为这是一个好主意。如果你真的去预测服务器、机器人等的增长，我们将需要大量的电力。这是一方面。显而易见的解决方案是建造和开发所需的设施。另一方面，有些人对这可能会破坏可持续性和气候等方面有所担忧。我们如何搭建一个逻辑的桥梁，让人们真正理解这一切是可行的，并不会破坏地球，同时我们可以获得丰富的能源？尤其是如你们所说，如果我们不去做，而别人拥有几乎零边际成本的能源，他们将自然取得优势。那么，我们如何合理地呈现这些论点，以便让人们更好地理解呢？
Yeah, I've been writing and talking about that for 20 years and you're 100% right. And to me, it comes down to the same thing AI is focused on, which is on data and facts. We've increased atmospheric CO2 by 50% 100% it absorbs in for red radiation. It's been a force for warming. That's all true. But if you look at the trade offs on it, it's not in the top five problems the planet focuses. And what has been the biggest source of decarbonization, not just in the United States, but globally has been market forces, cheap natural gases displaced coal. And what's a lower carbon energy source nuclear that's on all the time.
是的，我已经写过和谈论过这个问题20年了，你说得完全正确。对我来说，这归结为与人工智能关注的点相同，那就是数据和事实。我们已经增加了大气中的二氧化碳含量50%，它100%吸收红外辐射，这确实导致了升温。这些都是真的。但是如果你看一下其中的权衡，这并不是地球所面对的前五大问题之一。最大的去碳化来源，不仅在美国而且在全球范围内，是市场力量，便宜的天然气取代了煤炭。持续提供能源的低碳能源是什么？是核能。
So this administration all in to get the nuclear industry moving again, natural gases, the fastest growing energy source on the planet, get out of the way of that, let natural gas grow. It's the cheapest source of electricity in the US. I'm pro solar as well. I just don't want taxpayers to pay for it. I want businesses to pay for it. But solar is going to keep growing. Solar is going to keep growing. No doubt a nuclear expansion. I just want to talk about nuclear expansion for once I can. So how do we actually build these things faster? Have the capability and the technical construction know house so that these aren't 15 year projects. But also how do we incentivize the states to basically get out of the way? Or like these other organizations that can launch the frivolous lawsuits, slow it all down.
这届政府全力推动核工业复苏。天然气是全球增长最快的能源，我们应该避免阻碍其发展，让天然气继续增长。它是美国最便宜的电力来源。我也支持太阳能，只是希望太阳能的成本由企业承担，不由纳税人承担。但太阳能将继续增长，这一点毫无疑问。同样，核能也会扩张。我想谈谈核能的扩展，我们如何更快地建造这些设施？我们需要具备技术能力和施工经验，这样这些项目不再需要15年才能完成。此外，我们还需要激励各州减少阻碍，如何对抗那些可以通过琐碎诉讼来拖慢进程的组织。
How do we do that? So not a regulatory firm things. One we're working on FERC. FERC has this inefficient Q system that just gets gummed up with mostly stuff that's never going to happen. FERC came out yesterday with a new system. Were you going to prioritize things that matter? They're going to move through faster. So you saw the Supreme Court decision on NEPA. We got to get NEPA back to where it was. A process check on the environment, not an avenue for law fair to stop things and kill things. So there's structural changes. There's just common sense reforms. We're going to get rid of clean power at 2.0. That says you're going to have to have carbon capture and storage 15 years out on any natural gas is what's going to power AI.
我们该怎么做呢？这不是关于监管机构的事情。首先，我们正在与联邦能源管理委员会（FERC）合作。FERC有一个低效的申请排队系统，里面大多数内容是永远不会实现的东西。FERC昨天推出了一个新系统，将优先处理重要事项，这样可以更快速地推进。你可能看到最高法院对国家环境政策法案（NEPA）的判决。我们需要将NEPA恢复到原来的状态，成为对环境的流程检查，而不是利用法律手段来阻止和摧毁项目的渠道。所以这包括结构性变革和常识性改革。我们打算取消2.0版本的清洁电力计划，因为它要求你在未来15年内为所有天然气项目进行碳捕获和储存，这将成为人工智能的动力来源。
It's just be honest. What's going to be the main source of new electricity in the United States by far and away natural gas. Just because it's cheapest fast, it's reliable and dependable. Solar is going to play a role. NUCAR is going to play a role. Hydrogen, thermal stop closing coal. Lots of pieces. But it's dominantly going to be natural gas. It's the fastest growing energy source. Not just in the US, but in the whole planet. There's a reason for it. It's cheap. It's massively abundant. It burns clean. The machinery lasts longer than machinery burning oil or coal or something else. But it's elect businesses. Doug and I are not here to tell anyone what to build and what not to build.
坦率地说，美国未来电力的主要来源将是天然气，因为它既便宜又快速，可靠且稳定。太阳能和核能也会发挥作用，还有氢能、地热能等，煤炭使用则在减少。这些都是发电的方式，但主要还是会依靠天然气。天然气是增长最快的能源，不仅在美国如此，全球也是一样。这是有原因的：天然气价格低廉，储量丰富，燃烧过程清洁，而且设备比使用石油或煤炭的设备寿命更长。但我们并不是来告诉大家该建什么、不该建什么。
We're here to get roadblocks out of the way. So capitalism and consumers and investors can decide where capital is. Solar is cheaper than coal plants. Some of the scalability of nuclear. That's simple. The scalability of nuclear is unbounded. What we've seen in China in the past couple of years is these generation four nuclear reactors. This pebble bed reactor is probably the most elegant, beautiful energy system designed in human history. It's incredible what it can do. The scalability, the cleanliness of it, how it works. We have no effort in this country today to build and deploy gen four reactors because there's no economic incentives. The path to get there is so far. The cost is so high.
我们的目标是清除障碍，这样资本主义、消费者和投资者可以决定资本的流向。太阳能比煤电厂更便宜。核能在某些情况下具有可扩展性，这很简单。核能的可扩展性是无限的。过去几年中，我们在中国看到的是第四代核反应堆。这种卵石床反应堆可能是人类历史上设计最优雅、美观的能源系统。它的功能令人惊叹。它的可扩展性、清洁性以及运作方式都非常出色。然而，目前在我们国家并没有努力去建造和应用第四代反应堆，因为缺乏经济激励，实现这一目标的道路太远，而成本也太高。
What can the energy dominance council? What are you guys doing in your roles to make gen four reactors? Because everyone's like, go back to the AP 1000. He's old Westinghouse designs from like 50 years ago and build that for nuclear. Why can't we build for the future? What can we do to create the incentive to make this work? I was going to say, I mean, the one thing that's already happened if people are into nuclear, which doesn't help us in the near term race that we're in. The near term race as Chris said is going to be one by us getting natural gas power online and stop shutting stuff down.
能源主导委员会能做些什么？在你们的角色中，为了推动第四代核反应堆，你们正在做些什么？大家都在说，为什么不回到旧的AP 1000设计，即大约50年前的西屋公司设计，用于核能。但我们为什么不能为未来建设呢？我们可以做些什么来激励这个目标的实现？我想说，对于热衷于核能的人来说，已经发生了一些事情，但这并不能在我们当前的短期竞争中帮到我们。正如克里斯所说，在短期竞争中，我们需要通过让天然气发电上线并停止关闭现有设备来获得胜利。
But President Trump signed four executive orders on nuclear about six weeks ago. And there's been a flood of capital. We've got a bunch of venture capital going towards over close to a dozen different SMR startups. There's a lot of interest going on in that field. Chris's work with the national labs redirecting that. I mean, nuclear has got a future. But it's not the thing we need in the next 24 months right now. That's got to keep moving ahead. President Trump's executive orders helped that. But we've got to get folks done getting more power right now. Nuclear is the single biggest issue I work on.
但是，大约六周前，特朗普总统签署了四项关于核能的行政命令，导致资本大量涌入。我们看到有很多风险投资正在流向接近十几家不同的小型模块化反应堆（SMR）初创公司。这个领域引起了很大的关注。Chris正在与国家实验室合作，进行相关调整。也就是说，核能是有前景的。但是，在接下来的24个月内，这不是我们最需要的东西。核能仍需持续推进，特朗普总统的行政命令对此有所帮助。但是我们现在需要更多的人找出更快增加电力的方法。核能是我工作中关注的最大议题。
We will have three next generation, Gen 4 reactors critical in Idaho National Lab next summer. We have, we're supplying Halo, the fuel for these next generation reactors to the, we've already committed to five and we'll give it to a dozen of these next generation reactor companies. We worked in the one big beautiful bill to keep in the nudge the tax credits for nuclear because the government smothered the industry and killed it for three decades. Even a free market guy like me thinks we need to get a little help to get it started.
我们将在明年夏天于爱达荷国家实验室启用三个下一代——第四代核反应堆。我们已经承诺为这五个反应堆提供Halo燃料，并将把燃料供应给十几家下一代核反应堆公司。我们曾在一项重要的法案中努力保留了对核能的税收抵免，因为三十年来政府的干预抑制了这个行业的发展。即使像我这样支持自由市场的人也认为，要让核能重新起步，我们需要一些帮助。
How far away are we till it's free market running? Probably 10 years. 10 years. 10 years because it's just a learning curve with the small module reactors. You got to build up the supply chain. You got to build up and build them in volume. The cost can come down dramatically. And as you have the first ones, you guys look at your energy demand curves. Do you account for this revolution happening in physical AI? Because every time I look at its data centers this and buildings that but no one talks about physical AI, which is batteries in robots. And some people are estimating hundreds of millions or billions of these things being built in ruins. Trillions, is this part of the energy calculus as you think about demand?
我们离实现自由市场运行还有多远？可能还需要10年。10年。需要10年的原因是小型模块反应堆需要一个学习过程。必须建立供应链，并批量生产它们。这样成本才会大幅下降。随着第一批反应堆的出现，大家需要看看自己的能源需求曲线。你们是否考虑了物理人工智能革命的发生？因为每当我查看数据中心和建筑物的信息时，没有人提到物理人工智能。这涉及到装在机器人中的电池，而有些人估计将会有成百上千万甚至数十亿这样的东西被建造出来。这是否在你们考虑能源需求时的一部分计算中？
It is a meaningful part of it. And yes, the more you look at that, the more you see increased consumption of energy there. And the more excited I get. The more we can build things at scale, the better we can get the economics. One other data point. We put out at the Department of Energy, we got 16 locations to build data centers. We said who wants to come build one? We'll permanent right away. We'll help you build power generation right next to it. We got 300 responses. We will announce tomorrow the first four of those sites that will be developed.
这是其中一个有意义的部分。是的，你越关注这个问题，就越能看到那里的能源消耗增加，而我也因此感到更加兴奋。我们能够大规模建设的越多，经济效益就会越好。还有另一个数据点。我们在能源部发布了消息，选定了16个地点用于建设数据中心。我们宣布谁愿意来建设，我们将立即授权，并帮助在旁边建设发电设施。结果我们收到了300个回应。明天我们将宣布首批开发的四个地点。
And then you'll hear many more coming behind that. How do we solve the supply chain issues around the turbines and the other enabling technologies that we need for things like MacGas? Because I agree with you. I have a data center project in Arizona. It's a giga lot. It would be $25 billion of capital. But we're stuck in this weird situation where ensuring the MacGas turbines are extremely difficult. Then you see certain people will just buy the MacGas entire plants and then ship them over. So how do we solve the supply chain constraints to generating the energy we need?
然后，你还会听到更多类似的问题出现。我们应该如何解决与涡轮机以及其他支持技术相关的供应链问题，这些技术是我们在MacGas等项目中所需要的？因为我同意你的观点。我在亚利桑那有一个数据中心项目，规模非常大，预计需要250亿美元的资金。但我们遇到了一个奇怪的问题，就是确保MacGas涡轮机的供应非常困难。然后你会看到一些人干脆购买整个MacGas工厂，然后运过来。所以，我们该如何解决制约能源生产的供应链问题呢？
I wouldn't say again back to the immediate need right now. We need more power and we need power for factories that are producing AI. Like we're using Jensen's word. Which I think everybody should stop saying data centers because a data center, if you have a data center the way America thinks about them, you're processing a shopping claim. It helps the seller the buyer and maybe a third party. If you're processing a healthcare claim, it's a provider, a payer, and a patient. But in an AI, it's general purpose technology. We're actually literally manufacturing every day over and over more intelligence.
我不会再回到眼前的需要。我们现在需要更多的电力，特别是为生产人工智能的工厂提供电力。用Jensen的话来说，我认为大家应该停止称呼“数据中心”。因为在美国，人们对数据中心的理解只是处理购物交易，这对买卖双方和可能的第三方有帮助。如果是在处理医疗保险索赔，也涉及到服务提供者、支付方和患者。但是在人工智能领域，我们每天都在制造更多的智能，人工智能是一种通用技术。
And so that's different. It's not data centers. It's AI factories. And we've taken a look at any DC at the supply chain. If any of you are trying to build an AI factory and you need power and you haven't talked to Chris and I and our team inside the White House at the National Energy Dominance Council, you need to come and talk to us because we're mapping out talking to everybody in the industry. We're a neutral party but we're saying here's where the shortages are. We've talked about things like the Defense Production Act.
所以情况有所不同。这不只是数据中心，而是人工智能工厂。我们已经审视了供应链中的任何数据中心。如果你们当中有人试图建造人工智能工厂，需要电力，但还没有和我、Chris以及我们在白宫内的国家能源主导委员会团队交流，那么就需要来找我们。因为我们正在与行业中的每个人交流并绘制地图。我们是一个中立方，但我们会指出短缺在哪里。我们还讨论了像《国防生产法》这样的话题。
We've talked to companies that are producing turbines. Everything we're doing, we say, hey, you've got to amp up because some of these people are sleeping on the sidelines and they don't think there's going to be real demand. And we're saying if anything the demand is underestimated. So we're trying to jack up the supply into the supply chain. But please contact us. We're there. Think of us not. We're not a group that writes papers. We're a group that helps people. We help people build projects. That's what we do. We can't wait to visit. Just build a data center, Jake Helen. You'll get an invite.
我们已经与生产涡轮机的公司进行了交谈。我们告诉他们，必须加强生产，因为有些人对此并不重视，他们认为未来不会有真正的需求。而实际上，市场需求可能被低估了。因此，我们正努力增加供应链的供给。但请随时与我们联系。我们在这里。请不要仅仅把我们当成写报告的团队，我们是一个帮助他人的团队。我们帮助人们建项目，这就是我们所做的工作。我们迫不及待地想去拜访。赶快建一个数据中心吧，Jake Helen，你会收到邀请的。
So AI factory. Yeah, factory. We all spent a little data. So like we got enough data. Secretary Bergen, right, as we finished up, hit on the point we were talking about a little bit earlier, which is that you take a step back. The focus here upstream on these prioritizations from energy to critical minerals is not just you have a new market, obviously on the AI side and there's huge demand. And this buildout is important for national security. This buildout is important for winning the AI race. But the derivative impact is what's most interesting, right? These are thousands of jobs, tens, hundreds of thousands of jobs.
所以AI工厂，嗯，工厂。我们都投入了一些数据，所以可以说我们有足够的数据。当我们快结束时，秘书伯根提到我们之前讨论的一个关键点，就是我们需要从更高的层次来看待问题。这里的重点是从能源到关键矿物的优先排序。这不仅仅是你有了一个新的市场，在AI方面确实有巨大的需求。这个建设对于国家安全非常重要，对于赢得AI竞赛也至关重要。但是最有趣的是其衍生影响，对吧？这将创造成千上万个、甚至几十万、上百万的就业机会。
And then on any of these manufacturing buildouts, particularly in factories, nuclear capabilities, they're going to lead to usually 10x the amount of indirect jobs as well. At the Chamos point in the supply chain for these things. Can you talk a little about the job impact now that we're seeing? And then if we're successful here in this build capacity, how many jobs we're talking about? How much can we actually help the middle class here? Well, it's a fabulous question, Christian. And I'm so bullish on the US economy because it's our friend Scott who was just on here before us. But I mean, you take the combination of lower taxes, dramatically lower regulation, accelerated permitting time.
然后，关于任何这些制造扩建，特别是在工厂和核能力方面，通常它们会带来10倍的间接工作机会。在供应链中的Chamos点上，能否谈谈我们现在看到的就业影响？如果我们在这个扩建能力方面取得成功，我们谈论的是多少工作机会？我们能在多大程度上帮助中产阶级？
这是个很好的问题，Christian。我对美国经济持非常乐观的态度，因为这涉及到我们之前提到过的朋友Scott。结合较低的税收、显著减少的监管以及加快的审批时间……
Just accelerating permitting, there could be a trillion to a trillion and a half dollars stuck in this two to four-year federal government permitting thing. We accelerate that expenditure capital, the on-shoring, the greatest economic developer in history, bringing foreign direct investment back the United States, President Trump with these tariffs. What we announced in Pittsburgh is $15 trillion. That's coming back. So with AI, software has always been the one thing that extended human capability more than any other in our lifetimes. And now with AI, it's just a massive multiplier of that. But to make the factory happen, we're going to have an explosion in jobs in the trades. I mean, you're going to be able to skip college, go directly into develop a trade, you don't make $150,000.
将审批流程加速，这样可以释放出一万亿到一万五千亿美元，这些资金目前被卡在联邦政府需要两到四年的审批过程中。我们将加速这些资本支出、回流的制造业，这是历史上最伟大的经济发展计划之一，并让外国直接投资回到美国，这是特朗普总统通过关税实现的成就。我们在匹兹堡宣布的计划是15万亿美元的回流。因此，通过人工智能，软件在我们这一生中一直是最能扩展人类能力的领域，而现在人工智能则让这种能力被大幅放大。为了让工厂顺利运作，技术工种的岗位将爆炸式增长。也就是说，你不需要上大学，直接学一门技术工种也能赚到15万美元。
Yeah, $150,000, $120,000 to start in my home state. And again, and for people that are spending money on site selection, I'll tell you one thing. You want to build it faster, go to where the stranded gas is, build your power plant there, build the AI factory next to it. You don't have to permit a transmission line, you don't have to permit a pipeline. Those are the two things. Linear infrastructure has been weaponized by the people that are opposed to energy developed in this country. They weaponize the blocking of those things. I say pipeline, you say protests. Go to the same place and co-locate. President Trump himself has said in speeches, we're going to let you operate off the grid.
好的，在我家乡，起步价是12万美元，最高可以达到15万美元。另外，对于那些在地点选择上花钱的人，我有个建议。如果你想更快建成，就去有闲置天然气的地方，在那里建造你的发电厂，然后在旁边建立人工智能工厂。这样你就不需要申请输电线路和管道的许可。这些线性基础设施一直被反对能源发展的群体当作武器，他们通过阻挠这些设施的建设来施加影响。我一提到管道，你可能就会想到抗议。因此，去同一个地方并设立在那里。特朗普总统在演讲中也说过，我们将允许你离网运行。
We can build all this stuff and keep rates for electricity for small businesses, consumers down. Because we've got to add to the supply. But which if you're going to go to where the gas is, there's sweet places to go. The Marcellus, the Permian, or the Bakken. And in the safe tens of millions hiring site selection guys, go find the people with stranded gas and get going. Secretary, thank you for being with us. That was great. Thank you. Thank you. Welcome back. How are you? How would I notice you had that incredibly smooth refined tequila at your birthday? How was it?
我们可以建造所有这些设施，同时保持小型企业和消费者的电费不变，因为我们必须增加供应。如果你要去有天然气的地方，有几个不错的选择，比如马塞勒斯、二叠纪盆地或者巴肯。通过聘请选址专家，可以节省数千万美元，让他们去找那些被滞留的天然气资源并开始开发。部长，谢谢你与我们同在。太棒了。感谢！欢迎回来。你好！我怎么注意到你生日宴会上有那款特别顺滑和精致的龙舌兰酒？那感觉如何？
Take us through it. Every set 14 minutes. Let's get to it. Smooth. Yeah. Well, thanks for great after this. Take us off. So the White House just rolled out a massive deal with Japan, which obviously plays a critical part of the sending conductive supply chain. Could you tell us a little bit about what the nexus is between this new exciting trade deal with Japan and how it fits with our current debate around winning the race on our official intelligence? So it was fundamental for Japan to lower their tariff because their car industry and their manufacturing industry is fundamental to their economy.
带我们了解一下吧。每组14分钟。让我们开始吧。顺利。嗯，之后谢谢大家的精彩分享。我们开始吧。白宫刚刚与日本达成了一项重大协议，这显然在半导体供应链中起着关键作用。你能告诉我们这个令人兴奋的新贸易协议与日本的关系，以及它如何与我们当前关于赢得人工智能竞赛的讨论相契合吗？对于日本而言，降低关税是至关重要的，因为他们的汽车工业和制造业对其经济至关重要。
And they paid a $550 billion what the president likes to call a signing bonus, right? The greatest signing bonus of all time. So they've committed $550 billion to finance projects in America that are important to the president and to American infrastructure. So we can build power means we can build 10 nuclear power plants. We could build fabs. Right. We could build critical minerals. We could do shipbuilding power power power. We could do anything. And they will finance it. And we split the profits of the project 90% for America and 10% for Japan. And I don't think people can actually understand how powerful that is. This is the national security sovereign wealth fund the United States of America funded by President Trump's tariff policy. That produced that kind of money committed to America.
他们支付了5500亿美元，正如总统所喜欢称之为的签约奖金，对吧？这是史上最伟大的签约奖金。所以，他们承诺投资5500亿美元用于资助美国总统重视的项目和美国基础设施。因此，我们能够建设电力设施，意味着我们可以建造10座核电站。我们可以建造晶圆厂，可以开发关键矿产，可以进行造船，无论是电力还是其他领域，我们都可以做。他们将为这些提供资金，我们将按项目利润分成，美国获得90%，日本获得10%。我想人们可能无法真正理解这有多么强大。这是由特朗普总统的关税政策支持的美国国家安全主权财富基金，产生了这样一笔对美国承诺的资金。
It's with that actually go into congratulations. Will that go into a sovereign wealth fund that you've been talking about and the president has been talking about. No, I think this is this is separate. What the president says about the sovereign wealth fund is we do a sovereign wealth fund that invests when we've done paying off our deficit. Right. First we got to pay off our deficits and work before we're trying to make money. So what this is is this is the Japanese government says I will finance and I will pay for right not finance. I will pay for you want to build a nuclear facility. Build it you want to build 10 nuclear facilities you go build them you want to go build a pipeline you go build it you want to build fabs you go build it whatever you think is necessary you build it will pay for it. You net lease it to an operator and will split the lease payments 90 for you. 10 for Japan it's a blockbuster if there ever was what it's an incredible deal structure how do you get to that.
这段话翻译成中文并简化为：
“所以，这是不是会进入你和总统谈到的主权财富基金呢？不，这部分是分开的。总统关于主权财富基金的看法是，我们在还清赤字之后，再进行投资。首先，我们需要还清赤字，再去赚钱。这个计划是，日方政府表示，他们将为建造核设施买单。如果你想建一座核设施，就去建；想建十座，就建十座；想建管道，就建管道；想建芯片工厂，就建芯片工厂。无论你认为什么是必要的，都可以去建造，我们会为此支付。然后，你们将其净租赁给运营商，并把租赁收入按90%和10%分给你们和日本。这是个非常吸引人的交易结构，简直不可思议。你们是怎么做到的？”
Well I got to that so this I came up with this idea in January and then I kept restructuring it to try to figure out how to do it because I met with some Japanese senior executives while before election before inauguration day and they said you know I understand your tariff policy but your pans never going to open. Right. They're just never going to open I mean in 1850 Perry took an armada and tried to break it open in 1850 couldn't open it so open the Japanese market so come up with another idea and the other idea was they buy it down and so what structure we used how they did it they offered us the originally started offering us loans or loan guarantees and the president said I don't need someone else to loans.
好的，我是在一月份想到这个主意的，然后不停地进行调整，以试图找到实现它的方法。当时我在选举前及就职日之前，和一些日本高管会面。他们对我说，我理解你的关税政策，但你的计划永远不会成功。他们举了个例子，说1850年佩里的舰队试图打开日本市场，但没有成功，所以我需要想一个其他的办法。于是，我想出了另一个主意，就是让他们来购买。而在我们使用的结构中，他们最初开始为我们提供贷款或贷款担保，但总统表示，他不需要其他人的贷款。
I go I don't need to borrow money from someone else and then finally we figured out that really it just needed to be committed capital to back projects that we want and so it was five months in the making and and I need talking to president about doing different structures and eventually in the middle of last week we came to the structure the president said okay I like it let's bring him in and talk and then the president made the deal better. Are you going to replicate this is this like a new blueprint or is it unique to Japan which is protectionist and its own unique culture. Well I mean the problem that Korea has is they're staring at it you know they view themselves deeply competitive to Japan they both produce huge amounts of cars they both produce huge amounts of electronics they both do these things and now they're looking at the price.
我去，我不需要向别人借钱，最后我们终于明白，其实只需要有承诺的资本来支持我们想要的项目。这花了五个月的时间，其间我需要和总统一起讨论不同的结构，最终在上周中期我们确定了一个结构，总统说可以，我喜欢这个，我们引进他来谈谈，然后总统让这个交易变得更好。你会复制这一做法吗？这是一种新的模式，还是仅适用于日本这样一个保护主义盛行、文化独特的国家？其实韩国面临的问题是，他们把自己视作日本的强劲竞争对手。两国都大量生产汽车和电子产品，现在他们也在看价格。
Right and they're thinking out so you know how quickly did they come to see me let's say would we announce the deal and they were in my office today so. The Koreans were oh yeah fantastic how much how much have you prioritize market access for American businesses into some of these countries versus some of the other kind of trade considerations where does it prioritize and we've talked about this a lot particularly as it relates to AI and I think that part of this is in the action plan and in the EOS being signed later today but this is a broader question for American businesses I work in agriculture it's very hard to access overseas markets and there's not a lot of parity is that become key to some of these conversations and where does it sit on the priority wrong.
好的，他们在思考，所以你知道他们来见我的速度有多快，比如说我们宣布这个交易，然后他们今天就在我的办公室。因此，韩国人非常出色。对于美国企业进入这些国家的市场准入，你们优先考虑了多少，相对于其他贸易因素，这项优先级如何分配？我们特别讨论过这个问题，尤其是与人工智能相关的内容。我认为这部分内容在今天晚些时候签署的行动计划和执行命令中有所体现，但对于美国企业而言，这是一个更广泛的问题。我在农业领域工作，很难进入海外市场，市场不太均衡。这些问题在一些对话中是否成为关键？它在优先级排序中处于什么位置？
That's the priority rule so the rule is you must open your market open open open and and let's be clear these markets have never been open we have Stockholm syndrome in America these markets have never been open there's tariffs there's non tariff trade barriers like you can't sell an American car in these locations whether you want to or not you're not allowed or they won't buy them because the seat belt is like this or that this is like they make these rules and they're not allowed to be in the market. So we are demanding the markets are open and the issue with Japan was they were never going to open it so what are we going to do and the answer was like that's where it came up with this you know signing bonus right so reciprocity or something interesting.
这就是优先原则，所以规则是你必须开放你的市场，让其开放、开放、再开放。要明确的是，这些市场从来都没有真正开放过。在美国，我们有“斯德哥尔摩综合征”。这些市场从来没有开放过，有关税，还有非关税贸易壁垒，比如说你不能在这些地方卖美国产的汽车，不管你愿不愿意，都不允许或者他们不愿意买，因为安全带的问题等等。他们制定这些规则，但市场并不开放。所以我们要求市场开放。至于日本的问题是，他们从未想开放市场，那我们怎么办？答案就是所谓的“签约奖金”这样的东西，也就是互惠或者其他有趣的东西。
You want to know something more bespoke Vietnam completely open Indonesia completely open Philippines mostly open small deficit relatively higher tariff right so it's all there's a sort of a lot of levers and you pull those levers but what are you going to wrap all this up this has been like a really shocking and now I think kind of you know more mundane methodical approach so when does it all wrap up and we can kind of put it up.
你想了解一些更定制化的信息：越南已经完全开放，印尼也是完全开放，菲律宾大部分开放，但存在小的赤字和相对较高的关税。因此，这就像有很多杠杆，你可以去操作这些杠杆。那么，你会怎么总结这一切？这一直以来都是相当令人震惊的，但现在我认为，这更像是一种平淡且有条不紊的方法。那么，什么时候这一切才能收尾，我们可以总结出来呢？
So I put the tariff issue behind us. Okay so on August 1st whatever hasn't been settled will be settled you get the tariffs going to affect right so all this 10% they'll all just pop up to some higher number he sent the letter to a lot of people right and now nothing stops them from negotiating the next day but they're paying on that day so that's next Friday I mean that's not that far away so we're very busy because a lot of people are going to be in the market.
所以我把关税问题放在我们身后。好吧，也就是说，到8月1日，任何没有解决的问题都会被解决，你知道关税马上就要生效了。所有这些10%的税率都会提高到一个更高的数字。他把信寄给了很多人，现在没有什么能阻止他们在第二天继续谈判，但他们在当天就得支付关税。所以就是下周五，离现在不远了，我们会很忙，因为会有很多人参与市场。
Very busy because a lot of people are now coming to the table with their best best offer but the price has gone very very high and let's be clear with that price is you will open your market to America you will open it to ranchers farmers fishermen you will open it you know you couldn't sell lobster to all these places like for instance Indonesia is completely open except for two products Muslim country no pork no alcohol.
这段话的意思是：现在有很多人带着他们最好的报价来到谈判桌，所以事情非常忙碌。但是价格已经涨得非常高了，这一点要明确。这个价格意味着你将向美国开放你的市场，开放给牧场主、农民、渔民等。你知道，以前你可能无法向这些地方出售像龙虾这样的产品，比如说印度尼西亚，市场已经完全开放了，只除了两个产品，因为这是个穆斯林国家，不允许猪肉和酒精。
Right we're talking India obviously no beef right I mean you do things like that you say but we need open if they don't want it open. There's your tariff it's 26% 27% 31% 19% whatever it is and then if you decide to open it later come on but that's what we're doing you'll find out over time what other kind of regulatory processes they have put in place this is always the issue and any of us work in foreign markets you've worked in foreign markets so you can't do that.
好的，我们在讨论印度，显然不涉及牛肉，对吧？我的意思是，你做这样的事情，同时又说我们需要开放市场，但如果他们不想开放，那就有他们的关税，可能是26%、27%、31%、19%，无论是多少。如果你后来决定开放，那就来吧，但这就是我们正在做的事情。随着时间的推移，你会发现他们还实施了其他什么样的监管流程，这始终是个问题。我们中任何在国外市场工作过的人都知道，你不能那样做。
So you can go in and then you find out well there's this thing I got to do and this thing takes 18 months or 36 months and they make it hard to get the permit or the whatever you need there's always a way does this become like a continuous policing exercise for your department and how does this become part of American trade like is this an ongoing kind of kind of iteration iterative process here they bought their tariff rate down by opening the market so if they mess with that the messing with the president.
所以你可以进去，然后你会发现有些事情需要做，而这个事情可能需要18个月或36个月，并且他们让获取许可或你需要的其他东西变得困难。总会有办法做到，但是这是否对你的部门来说变成了一种持续的监督工作？这又是如何成为美国贸易的一部分呢？这是一种持续的迭代过程吗？他们通过开放市场降低了关税率，所以如果他们在这方面捣乱，就等于是在挑战总统。
And I don't know if you guys have seen him on TV but that doesn't really work well. Yeah okay so the idea is he's making the deal he's closing the deal so the way we we talk about it together is I set the table right and he closes the deal and and he is the best negotiator because he's just he's done this his whole life and he's the president of the United States so that's amazing power and he wields it to get the best deals.
我不知道你们是否在电视上看到过他，但那效果不是很好。好吧，所以我们的想法是他在谈判并达成协议，我们的合作方式是我铺好摊子，而他负责谈成。这是因为他是最棒的谈判者，他一辈子都在做这个，而且他还是美国总统，所以他有很大的权力，并利用这些权力来争取最好的协议。
Let's talk about the big issue China where are we going to wind up with China reciprocity tiktok the whole shebang is this going to be one big grand bargain Taiwan tiktok there's so many issues is there any way to thread the needle on this.
让我们谈谈中国这个大问题——我们最终会在与中国的关系上如何定调？互惠、TikTok、所有这些问题，会有一个大的整体协议吗？台湾问题、TikTok问题，涉及这么多议题，我们有没有办法在这些问题上找到平衡？
I think the way I think about China is draw a line okay there's below the line like they sell us a baby clothes and we sell them soybeans. That stuff we need to do more of it that we want to buy more of that they want to buy more of ours we need to open that get this date on stuff you know where we're just flowing below the line got it above the line would be you know our best chips blackwell chips age you know two hundreds and one hundreds right we don't want to sell our best stuff they don't want to sell us hypersonic missiles either right we would say it was open we'd say well let's take a couple of your hypersonic let's see what you got.
我对中国的看法可以用一条线来分割。线以下的部分是我们相互之间的商品交易，比如他们卖给我们婴儿服装，我们卖给他们大豆。这些交易我们应该多做一些，他们愿意买我们的产品，我们也愿意买他们的产品。我们需要更开放这些领域，让这种贸易更加顺畅。明白吗？
而线以上的部分则是我们彼此之间不愿意出售的高科技产品，比如我们的顶级芯片和他们的高超音速导弹。我们不想出售我们最好的技术，他们也不想卖给我们他们的先进武器。如果一切都开放的话，我们可能会说，不如给我们几个你们的高超音速导弹，让我们看看你们有什么，但现实中这并不可能。
So that's not happening so that's above the line and then the question is what's the line that's the proper negotiation right the open below the line let's get it on good for both economies above the line where competitors let's just call it what it is and stick with it and then what we can really negotiate when we're together is the line.
所以这不会发生，那是在界线之上，然后问题是界线是什么，这才是正确的谈判方式。界线之下的开放让两国经济都有利，而界线之上则是竞争对手的关系。我们就把它称为实际情况并坚持下去，当我们在一起时，真正可以谈判的是这条界线。
Where's Tik Tok and all this Jacob and I have both pretty adamant this is spyware this is something that should not be on a hundred million Americans phones it is way too dangerous they proven themselves to use it to spy on journalists already and the fact that they won't divest from it I think tells you everything you need to know they see this as a critical weapon against the United States where what do you think what is the administration think.
抖音在哪里，所有这些情况又是如何？Jacob和我都非常坚持地认为这是间谍软件，这不应该出现在一亿美国人的手机上。这太危险了，他们已经证明自己利用这个软件来监视记者。而且他们拒绝出售它，我认为这已经告诉了你所有你需要知道的事情。他们将其视为对抗美国的重要武器。你怎么看？政府怎么看？
Sure, here is the text divided into a single meaningful paragraph:
当然，这段文字被划分成一个有意义的段落如下：
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当然，请提供您希望翻译的文本内容。
Well the president is reasonably positive about Tik Tok providing the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to the right to MIT.
总统对TikTok向麻省理工学院提供相关权利持谨慎乐观态度。
---. of is just shuts it off and that just seems illogical. I think I'll back to the above the line below the line. Love that. Love that thing. How do you think about the, and you talked about the chips, how do you think about these export controls to various countries and various regions? What's your risk calculus about where those things should be?
这段话中文翻译如下：关闭只会让它停止运行，这似乎不太合逻辑。我想我会回到这线上和线下的问题。我很喜欢这个概念。关于芯片，你是怎么看待针对不同国家和地区的出口管制的？对于这些出口管制，你的风险计算方式是什么？
And if I could just actually add a question that builds on top of that, you've talked about creating AI economic zones where trusted partners could get preferential access for American technology. So could you describe a little bit what your vision is for that? I think what we're wrestling with, and this is, we're really discussing literally the intellectual wrestle we're going through now, is the idea that we are comfortable with allies buying significant numbers of chips, right, and having a large cluster provided that cluster is operated by an American, a trusted American operator, and the cloud is a trusted American operator.
如果可以的话，我想补充一个问题，基于您之前提到的关于创建人工智能经济特区的内容。在这些特区中，可信赖的合作伙伴可以优先获得美国技术。那么您能否详细描述一下您对此的设想？我们目前正在努力解决的问题实际上涉及我们正在经历的智力上的讨论。具体来说，我们对盟友大量购买芯片感到放心，并允许他们建立一个大型集群，前提是该集群由一个受信任的美国运营商管理，云服务也是由一个受信任的美国运营商提供的。
So that we know that giant cluster is surrounded by us, right, as you go down from there, right, that's where we go, okay, if they want a smaller cluster, would you expand the number of people who are trusted, right, and the answer would be probably yes, right, and then when you go down from there to a smaller and smaller cluster, right, how do you deal with that? So I think it's cluster size is sort of the way of thinking rather than saying, you know, because I went to Poland, and I was in Poland on a mission for the government, and the Prime Minister of Poland chases me down.
为了让我们知道，巨大的集群是围绕着我们的，对吧，从那里往下走，没错，我们就能知道，如果他们想要一个更小的集群，你会增加被信任的人数吗？答案可能是会的，对吧，然后当你从那里到更小更小的集群时，你该如何处理？所以我认为应该从集群大小的角度来思考，而不是说，因为我去了波兰，当时我在执行政府的任务，波兰总理还专门来找我。
It says, what did I do to America to be tier three? And I was like, I thought you were a part of Europe, you know? But I didn't understand what could possibly be the issue. So I think the answer is, ally or not, cluster size, and who controls it or not. I think once you sort of wrestle with those ideas, and anybody who has ideas along those lines, and you want to come and talk to us about it, because this is really the thinking right now, and we're sort of debating that right now.
它说，我对美国做了什么，竟被列为第三级？我当时想，我还以为你是欧洲的一部分呢。不过我不明白可能会是什么问题。所以我认为答案可能与盟友关系、群体规模以及控制权等因素有关。我想一旦你开始思考这些问题，并且有相关想法，欢迎来和我们讨论，因为这正是我们目前所考虑和讨论的内容。
Howard, I just want to say, thank you for it's so great to have a sharp negotiator and such a creative mind representing America. It makes me feel like really great about that. Thank you for that, Gary. There have been many, I mean, fun. I don't know. We get 90% of Gary. I love it. It's yum yum. I love said that you were New Yorker, yeah? I am, but the, we go shader and chief.
霍华德，我只是想说，非常感谢你，拥有一位如此聪明的谈判者和富有创造力的人来代表美国，真是太好了。这让我感到非常自豪。谢谢你，盖瑞。经历了很多次，我是说，挺有趣的。我不知道。我们得到了盖瑞的90%，我非常喜欢这点。这真是太棒了。我喜欢你说你是纽约客，是吗？我是的，不过，我们有一位顶尖的谈判者。
I grew up along Island. My kids have grown him in Manhattan, but the negotiator in chief is Donald Trump. That's nice that he's got you. He's amazing. Well, thanks for coming. We're going to make some room for the president. He's going to get ready. Howard, thank you for joining us. That was great. Thank you.
我在长岛长大。我的孩子们是在曼哈顿长大的，而首席谈判代表是唐纳德·特朗普。很高兴他有你这样的支持。他真了不起。非常感谢你的到来。我们会为总统腾出一些空间，让他做好准备。霍华德，感谢您的加入。这很棒。谢谢。