Markets Weekly August 2, 2025
发布时间 2025-08-02 14:13:11 来源
Hello my friends. Today is August 2nd and this is markets weekly. So the past week was an action gem pack week. We got huge tier 1 data prints. We got some max 7 earnings. And of course, as always, interesting stuff coming from Preston Trump. So today, what I think I'll do is we'll kind of flow through some of the developments that happened the past week, but we'll place emphasis on the most important development. That is, non-forms payrolls print on Friday was disappointing, totally shifted the narrative, and is likely going to shift Fed policy as well.
你好，朋友们。今天是8月2日，这是我们每周的市场简报。过去一周非常精彩，充满了重要的事件。我们见证了重要的一级数据发布，还有一些令人期待的7家公司的财报。当然，还有一如既往来自普雷斯顿·特朗普的有趣话题。今天，我想带大家一起回顾一下过去一周的动态，但我们会着重讨论最重要的事情：上周五公布的非农就业数据不如预期，这完全改变了市场话题，并可能会导致美联储政策的变化。
Okay, starting with the GDP print. Now, on the first principle basis, we also, we always got to place a lot of emphasis on the GDP print. Because if the economy is growing, that means we're creating jobs, that means earnings are increasing, and if the economy is shrinking, well, you know, that's not good. Now, the second quarter GDP print was higher than expected, with a headline print of 3%. Now, that sounds really good, but we also have to remember that the first quarter printed at a negative 0.5%.
好的，我们先从GDP数据说起。首先，GDP数据非常重要，因为它能反映经济的状况。如果经济在增长，就意味着我们在创造就业机会，收入也在增加；而如果经济萎缩，那就不好了。第二季度的GDP数据高于预期，达到了3%，这个数字听起来不错。但我们也要记得，第一季度的增长是负的，只有-0.5%。
Now, a lot of the reason for the volatility is because of the trade war. A lot of companies are behaving differently, maybe importing a lot of stuff, the first quarter to avoid tariffs and so forth. So let's just take the two quarters together, average them out, first half growth on a headline basis is 1 and a quarter. Which is notably slower than say the 2.5% growth rate we've been seeing the past few years. So on that measure, the economy is definitely slowing down.
现在，波动性很大程度上是由于贸易战引起的。许多公司行为有所改变，比如在第一季度大量进口商品以避免关税等等。所以，我们可以把第一季度和第二季度放在一起，平均来看，上半年增长率为1.25%。这明显低于过去几年看到的2.5%的增长率。因此，从这个角度来看，经济确实在放缓。
Now, a lot of people who focus on GDP prints also like to focus on this measure called final sales to domestic purchasers, which they think of as kind of a core GDP print. That doesn't, isn't less affected by things like imports, exports, inventories, and so forth. Now, that measure growth is also a little bit above 1%, notably slower than last year. So the GDP data, all of the market re-backed positively to it, is at the end of the day showing that the economy is slower this year, year to date than last year.
现在，许多关注GDP数据的人也喜欢关注一个名为“内需最终销售”的指标，他们认为这算是一种核心GDP数据。这一指标不太受进口、出口、库存等因素的影响。这个指标的增长率也略高于1%，明显比去年慢。因此，尽管市场对GDP数据的反应较为积极，但从整体来看，今年经济的增速相比去年确实有所放缓。
Now, in addition to the GDP print, we also had for the markets super, super important, a bunch of Mag 7 prints. Now, Microsoft and Meta seems to have beat expectations. The market really loved their print. Meta was actually up 10% the day after and Microsoft zoomed up to be the second company with a $4-troll in-dollar market cap. Now, the other Mag 7 earnings, say Apple was, market was kind of lukewarm to that, and the market really didn't like the Amazon print with Amazon declining notably the day after.
现在，除了国内生产总值（GDP）的数据之外，对市场来说非常重要的是，我们还看到了Mag 7公司的一些业绩报告。其中，微软和Meta的表现似乎超出了预期，市场对此反应非常积极。Meta的股价在业绩报告发布后的第二天实际上上涨了10%，而微软的市值跃升成为全球第二家市值达到4万亿美元的公司。至于其他的Mag 7公司，比如苹果，市场反应比较平淡，而对于亚马逊的财报，市场非常不满，导致亚马逊的股价在第二天明显下跌。
But one thing to keep in mind that stood out to me is that when the market opened at all-time highs after the huge Microsoft and Meta earning beats, the market kind of sold it off throughout the day. And so that kind of reversal seemed like kind of a red flag to me. Now, the real negative development happened on Friday when we got the non-form payroll sprint. Now, the street was expecting about 100,000 jobs created for last month. We got 70,000 instead, so that was a little disappointing.
需要记住的一件事是，当市场因微软和Meta的业绩大超预期而达到历史新高开盘时，市场却在当天卖出。这样的反转对我来说像是一个警示信号。而真正的负面情况发生在星期五，当时我们得到了非农就业数据。市场预期上个月新增就业岗位约为10万，但实际数据只有7万，这有点让人失望。
But the real real problem was in the revisions, which is kind of surprising because as we've talked about before, the market usually doesn't care about revisions, usually just cares about what happens to the headline, and when the jobs get revised the way later, they just kind of shrug their shoulders. But this time though, the market cared a lot about revisions because they were huge revisions. One of the biggest revisions we've seen in decades. Now, when you look at the job growth over the past few months after revisions, then all those good job prints we had just this appears.
但真正的问题在于数据的修正，这有些出人意料，因为之前我们谈到过，市场通常不太关注数据的修正，通常只关心主要数据的结果，修正后的数据发布时，市场往往反应平淡。但这次市场却非常关注，因为修正幅度非常大，是几十年来最大的一次修正。现在，经过修正后，当你查看过去几个月的就业增长数据时，之前那些看起来不错的就业数据就消失不见了。
So it seems like over the past few months, the economy has created very, very little jobs actually. So that kind of makes sense when we talk about the GDP prints being slow, being showing slower growth, then logically job growth will also slow as well. So at least the two are consistent. So that is setting up any labor market that is much weaker than expected.
过去几个月，经济实际上新增的工作岗位非常少。当我们讨论GDP增长缓慢的时候，这种情况就说得通了，因为逻辑上工作岗位的增长也会随之放缓。至少这两个趋势是一致的。这就导致了就业市场比预期更疲软。
Now, there's some interesting work done by Parker Ross over there from Arch showing that, although the unemployment rate is still around 4.2%, which is historically quite low, a lot of the reason is because labor force participation is declining. So more and more people who are just not looking for job anymore, they're dropping out. It could be that they're discouraged. It's hard to know. But part of the reason why the unemployment rate has stayed so low is because the supply of labor is decreasing from lower labor force participation.
现在，来自Arch的Parker Ross进行了一些有趣的研究。研究显示，虽然失业率仍然在4.2%左右，这在历史上算是相当低的水平，但其中一个主要原因是劳动力参与率在下降。也就是说，越来越多的人不再寻找工作，他们退出了劳动力市场。这可能是因为他们感到沮丧，具体原因很难确定。但失业率保持如此低水平的部分原因，是因为劳动力参与率下降导致劳动力供应减少。
And by his calculations, if labor force participation did not decline the past few months, if it held as it was in April, we'd actually have an unemployment rate of 4.9%. So that of course is a level that would more merit caution. So the market took one read of this print and really didn't like it. So the stock market sold off, bond market rallied hugely. We had a huge rally in the 10 year yield. And especially in the front end because the market, although it wasn't completely sure if we would get a cut in September, now it's becoming increasingly confident that we will. It's beginning to price in a lot more rate cuts. And of course, the dollar sold off significantly.
根据他的计算，如果过去几个月劳动力参与率没有下降，而是维持在四月的水平，我们的失业率其实会是4.9%。这个水平当然会更需要谨慎对待。因此，市场在看到这一数据后不太满意，股市出现了下跌，而债市则大幅上涨，我们在十年期国债收益率上看到很大的涨幅。特别是在短期债券方面，因为市场虽然之前不太确定九月是否会降息，但现在越来越有信心认为会降息，开始更多地定价进了降息的可能性。当然，美元也出现了显著下跌。
Now the upshot of this is that with such weak labor market data, there is an increasing prospect of a recession. And if you have a recession, that changes everything. Now, this kind of puts us in an interesting position because the Fed is potentially kind of late to the party, if that's the case. Now on Friday, or maybe it was Thursday, anyway, around then we also had two statements from the two dissenting Fed governors on why they dissented on Wednesday's meeting.
结果就是，由于劳动力市场数据如此疲软，经济衰退的可能性正在增加。而一旦经济衰退发生，一切都会改变。这使我们处于一个有趣的境地，因为如果真是这样，美联储可能有点反应迟缓。此外，在周五，或者可能是周四，总之差不多那个时候，我们还听到了两位持不同意见的美联储理事在周三会议上为何反对的声明。
Now, Governor Bowman and Governor Wallet both gave basically this pretty similar rationale. The rationale for why the Fed should have cut last Wednesday was because they thought that the labor market was just not very strong. In fact, Governor Wallet gave a very clear speech while he thought it was on the nice, that it was very likely going to crack. And so, monetary policy because it acts with a lag, we should be acting now and cutting rates now. And if you recall, this state kind of contradicts what Sherpa was saying.
现在，鲍曼州长和沃勒州长都提供了一个相似的理由。他们认为美联储应该在上周三降息的原因是，劳动力市场并不强劲。实际上，沃勒州长发表了一次非常明确的演讲，指出尽管市场看起来还不错，但很有可能会出现问题。因此，由于货币政策的效果有滞后性，我们现在就应该采取行动并降息。如果你还记得，这种说法有点与谢尔帕之前的言论相矛盾。
Let's listen to what he said at the last meeting. I mean, our two mandate variables are inflation and maximum employment. Stable prices and maximum employment, not so much growth. So the labor market looks solid. Inflation is above target.
让我们听听他在上次会议上说的话。我的意思是，我们的两个关键目标是通货膨胀和最大限度的就业。我们关注的是稳定的物价和充分的就业，而不是太多关注增长。因此，劳动力市场看起来很稳固，但通货膨胀高于目标。
And even if you look through the tariff effects, we think it's still a bit above target. And that's why our stance is where it is. But as I mentioned, downside risks to the labor market are certainly apparent. So Sherpa was basing his case on keeping policy where it was, just leaving rates unchanged because he asserted that the labor market was strong.
即使不考虑关税的影响，我们仍然认为情况稍微超过了目标。这就是我们采取这种立场的原因。但正如我提到的，劳动力市场面临的下行风险显然存在。所以，Sherpa 的立场是基于保持政策不变，仅因为他认为劳动力市场依然强劲，才建议维持利率不变。
Inflation a little bit higher than expected. And so we should just leave policy where it is. And in his view, policy is only modestly restrictive. Now, with this new labor market data, that section that believes that the labor market is weakening is going to have a lot more ammo. They're going to be a lot more persuasive. And so it's a really good chance that we do get a Fed cut in September.
通胀略高于预期。因此，我们应该保持目前的政策不变。在他看来，这项政策只是小幅限制。现在，有了这些新的劳动力市场数据，那些认为劳动力市场正在减弱的人将有更多的依据，他们的观点将更具说服力。所以，九月份我们获得美联储降息的可能性非常大。
Now, between then and now, we have to remember that we're going to get one more labor market report. You know, if the next report is like this report, weak with more provisions. So even revising away the 70,000 jobs we created, we could even go for 50 basis points. That being said, on Friday, we also had some commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and also Cleveland Fed president as well.
从现在到那时， 我们必须记住，我们还会得到另一个劳动力市场报告。你知道，如果下一个报告和这次的一样疲软，并带有更多的调整，即使我们修正了我们创造的7万个工作岗位，利率甚至可能升高50个基点。尽管如此，上周五我们也听到了纽约联邦储备银行主席约翰·威廉姆斯和克利夫兰联邦储备银行主席的一些评论。
And they were like, yeah, labor market is strong, labor market is strong. But yeah, maybe we can cut it some timber. So they were sticking to the narrative. But I'm pretty confident that, you know, one more weak labor market report and they will be forced to change their mind.
他们就说，嗯，劳动力市场很强劲，劳动力市场很强劲。不过，也许我们可以稍微削减一点。虽然他们一直坚持这个说法，但我非常确信，再有一份疲软的劳动力市场报告的话，他们就不得不改变看法了。
So in addition to this, and I think we can now talk a little bit about some interesting political developments now. We have some curious sudden resignation of Governor Krueger from the Fed. So Governor Krueger was actually absent from the Wednesday meeting. And that's pretty unusual. If you are a Fed governor, your job is to show up at these meetings, right? That's kind of what you're supposed to do.
因此，除此之外，我认为我们现在可以稍微谈谈一些有趣的政治发展。最近我们有联邦储备委员会的克鲁格尔州长突然辞职的消息，引起了大家的关注。克鲁格尔州长实际上缺席了周三的会议，这很不寻常。如果你是联储体系的州长，你的职责之一就是出席这些会议，对吧？这基本上是你应该做的事情。
But she kind of didn't go. And then suddenly on Friday, Senator to the president saying that she was going to resign it. And no one is really clear why it could be for personal reasons. Maybe she's not feeling well, but then she's going to resume teaching at a university later in the fall. I mean, there could be some political intrigue for all I know.
但是她好像没有去。然后突然在星期五，她致信总统表示将要辞职。没有人确切知道原因，可能是出于个人原因，也许她感觉不太好。但她将在秋季晚些时候重新开始在大学教书。至于是否有政治阴谋，我也不太清楚。
But that kind of moves up the timetable when President Trump can point a new person to the Fed board. Now, Governor Krueger's term was going to expire early next year. And that was the timetable. So President Trump maybe would appoint someone, nominate someone to take over that role in the fourth quarter.
但这意味着特朗普总统可以更早地指派新人员加入美联储董事会。现在，克鲁格尔理事的任期原计划在明年年初到期，这就是最初的时间安排。所以特朗普总统可能会在第四季度提名某人接替这个职位。
And that person then can hopefully become confirmed early next year. But now this is moving up the timetable to six months. Now, a common narrative was what common, this is all he suggested by Secretary Besan, was to nominate someone who was on team Trump, have that person then be elevated to Fed chair when Powell's term expires and have that person act as a quote unquote shadow Fed chair once confirmed or once nominated to try to influence monetary policy.
该人希望能在明年年初得到确认任命。但现在，时间表被提前到六个月。一个常见的说法是，正如贝尚部长所建议的那样，提名一个曾在特朗普团队工作的人，让这个人在鲍威尔任期结束后被提升为美联储主席，并在被确认或提名后，作为“影子美联储主席”来影响货币政策。
That whole playbook was not stated to start until the fourth quarter. But now that Governor Krueger is suddenly resigning, that whole playbook can be moved forward very, very soon. And so we could have a new Fed board nominee sooner than expected. So that's some more potential for some dovish moves in the markets because wherever that person will be, we'll be able to have a voice on the FMC, 200 and expected. And depending on who they are, they could be someone persuasive that kind of kind of pushes the board towards more of a dovish slant or it could be someone that's perceived to be kind of a politicized appointee who could of course not be persuasive and not end up being super productive. And we just end up having three descendants instead of two. So we'll see what happens. This is a, this time let me just being sped up.
整个计划原本预计要等到第四季度才开始。然而，由于州长克鲁格突然辞职，该计划现在可以非常、非常快地提前进行。因此，我们可能比预期更早迎来一位新的美联储理事会提名人选。这增加了市场上出现鸽派举措的潜力，因为这个人将能在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上发声，并且根据他们是谁，可能会倾向于推动理事会向更加鸽派的方向发展。或者，他们可能会被视为具有政治背景的任命者，当然可能不会那么有说服力，最终没能带来很大成效，结果我们可能会有三个反对者而不是两个。所以，我们拭目以待。这次变化可能会加快进行。
Now one other thing that I would like to point to is that President Trump is unhappy with the labor market statistics and so has directed his team to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now this person is a Biden appointee and President Trump is saying that this person is being politicized and it wants to get rid of this person. Now on the face of it, this sounds pretty bad, right? You don't like the statistics. So you just fire the commissioner and maybe next month it will get really good statistics or something like that. So that is something of concern, but remember, actually we'll keep in mind two things like we've been talking about. We are in a world where the future will not look like the past, how the United States government is going to be run is going to change. So things like this are going to happen more frequently.
现在我想指出另外一件事情：特朗普总统对劳工市场的统计数据不满意，因此指示他的团队解雇劳工统计局的局长。这位局长是拜登任命的，特朗普总统声称此人被政治化，并想要将其撤换。表面上看，这似乎不太好——你不喜欢统计数据，就解雇局长，也许下个月数据就会变得好起来。这确实是个令人担忧的事情，但请记住两个关键点：我们正处在一个未来与过去不同的世界，美国政府的运作方式也将发生变化。所以这样的事情会更频繁地发生。
I mean, we already see a president that shows up at the Fed. It gives the Fed sure a pet on the back and asks them to cut rates, right? So things are changing. So maybe we will see more of these sudden firings to, I guess, replace them with other political and pointies. The second thing is that, well, I don't actually know this person at all. And maybe she is doing a good job and there are a lot of people on the internet who are vouching for her, but we also note that the Biden administration, they were, you know, in a lot of ways dishonest, right? So you had all these Biden people telling everyone that the president Biden was a young and dynamic sharp as attack and in command and all that. But now we know in retrospect that he basically had to mention and other people were running the government for him. So a lot of these people were dishonest to us.
我想说，我们已经看到一位总统出现在美联储，给他们鼓励，并要求降低利率，对吧？所以情况正在发生变化。因此，也许我们会看到更多这样的突然解雇，可能是为了用其他政治任命者来取代他们。第二点是，我其实根本不认识这个人。也许她做得很好，网上也有很多人为她背书，但是我们也注意到，拜登政府在很多方面不够诚实，对吗？比如那些拜登支持者告诉大家拜登总统年轻、有活力、头脑敏锐并且完全掌控局面。但现在我们回头看时才知道，实际上他基本上是患有认知障碍，政府事务是由其他人代为处理。所以这些人当时对我们并不诚实。
And so it's hard to know whether or not this BLS commissioner was is one of the honest people or not. So I just don't know. And so even though it appears really bad that she's suddenly being fired, you know, I just don't know enough about the facts to know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. So one other thing, the last thing that I like to flag is that I think the market is really under appreciating upcoming geopolitical risk when it comes to Russia. So I guess the big news that actually started the week over the weekend was President Trump and the European Union. Now suddenly, suddenly I reached a trade deal. No surprise to any of us. We already knew that the end game as we discussed last week was to have 15% tariffs on basically all the US allies.
因此，很难判断这位劳工统计局局长是否是一个诚实的人，所以我真的不清楚。因此，尽管她突然被解雇看起来很糟糕，但我不知道这到底是好事还是坏事。还有一件事情我要指出的是，我认为市场确实低估了俄罗斯即将带来的地缘政治风险。我猜想这个周末的大新闻，是关于特朗普总统和欧盟的。现在，突然之间，他们达成了一个贸易协议。这对我们来说不算意外，因为我们早就知道，正如上周讨论的那样，最终的结果是对所有美国盟友征收15%的关税。
Now one thing that was special about the deal and this was widely remarked is that it seemed very, very one-sided. President Trump at the end of the day said that we were going to tariffs. You imports by 15%. You you cannot retaliate and also you must open up your markets to more US goods and also you have to promise to buy more natural gas from us. Definitely very one-sided. But when you look at these negotiations, we have to realize that you know it's a multi-dimensional thing. The EU depends on the US for its defense. Now if you look at this map of US military bases felt the world, you can see that there are quite a few of them in the European Union. And the European Union right now is at war with Russia.
这笔交易特别之处在于显得非常非常单方面，这一点被广泛讨论。特朗普总统最后说，我们要对你的进口商品征收15%的关税，你不能进行报复，而且你还必须开放市场，接受更多美国商品，还要承诺购买更多我们的天然气。确实是非常单方面的。但在看这些谈判时，我们必须认识到这是一个多维度的问题。欧盟在防务上依赖美国。如果你看看美国军事基地在全球的分布图，你会发现欧盟内部有相当多的基地。而且欧盟现在正与俄罗斯处于战争状态。
So it seems like for them it's not just about trade but also for defense as well. Now reading between the lines, it seems like part of the reason that they were willing to agree to this one-sided trade deal was that the US would have a bigger participation in the war with Russia. And so we see the the president from ramping a red word towards Russia over the past couple weeks. Now they he gave President Putin a deadline 50 days to stop the war with Ukraine. Now it's been shortened to 10 days which is sometime next week. And his promise is that if the war is not stopping, he's going to put secondary sanctions on Russia, what that means is that the US is going to sanction countries that buy oil from Russia.
所以，对他们来说，这不仅仅是关于贸易的问题，还涉及到国防。仔细分析，这次愿意同意这个不平等贸易协议的部分原因似乎是美国将在对俄战争中有更多的参与。因此，我们观察到，这位总统在过去几周内加大了对俄罗斯的强硬言辞。他给了普京总统一个50天的最后期限来终止与乌克兰的战争，现在这个期限被缩短到了10天，也就是下周的某个时候。他的承诺是，如果战争没有停止，将对俄罗斯实施次级制裁。这意味着美国将制裁那些从俄罗斯购买石油的国家。
Now if you look at this chart, you can see that that's largely India and China. Now the US already put large tariffs on India, 25%, seemingly in part in response to India's close relationship with Russia. And China, you know, the US really can't push China around but we know that they're not good friends either.
现在如果你看这个图表，你可以看到主要是印度和中国。美国已经对印度征收了25%的高额关税，这似乎部分是因为印度与俄罗斯的紧密关系。至于中国，美国其实无法对其施加太大压力，但我们也知道两国关系并不友好。
So these are sanctions that would have a big impact on the global markets because although we put sanctions on Russia over the past few years, there were a lot of loopholes in them such that they didn't actually impact the oil market all that well. There's a huge black market there. Now it's the US really were serious trying to enforce these sanctions. There are big ramifications for oil, for trade and of course for geopolitics and it looks like the US is getting more and more serious in hardening its stance towards Russia.
这些制裁将对全球市场产生重大影响，因为尽管我们在过去几年对俄罗斯实施了制裁，但其中存在许多漏洞，因此对石油市场的影响并不大。那里有个巨大的黑市。现在，美国真的在认真尝试执行这些制裁。对石油、贸易以及当然的对地缘政治都会有很大的影响。看起来，美国在对俄罗斯的立场上越来越强硬了。
So I think that's some tail risk the market isn't appreciating. We did see oil respond to this a little bit but the overall risk markets don't seem to respond too much. So I think that's something that we should focus on this coming week.
所以我认为这是市场没有充分认识到的一些尾部风险。我们确实看到石油市场对此有一些反应，但整体风险市场似乎并没有太大反应。因此，我认为我们应该关注即将到来的一周。
After all, the trade deal was over and now we're going to find out in the coming months just how big of an impact it's having on our economy. All right, so that's all it prepared for today. This week we did also have the treasury refunding announcement. Not super interesting but I think it does show a little bit about how the issuance structure could change going forward.
毕竟，贸易协议已经结束了，未来几个月我们将会了解到它对我们的经济有多大影响。好了，今天准备的内容就到这里。这周我们还收到了财政部的偿债公告。虽然不是特别有趣，但我认为这多少反映出未来发行结构可能会有所变化。
So that's what I'll write about this week. All right, talk to you all next week.
所以这就是我这周要写的内容。好的，下周再和大家聊。